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[NL2-NL10] NL2 SH T9o

    • staktas
      Joined: 28.03.2011 Posts: 1,346
      Known players:

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.104 by

      Preflop: Hero is BB with T:club: , 9:diamond:
      MP2 calls $0.02, MP3 calls $0.02, CO folds, BU calls $0.02, SB folds, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0.09) T:spade: , 8:spade: , 7:diamond: (4 players)
      Hero bets $0.06, MP2 calls $0.06, MP3 raises to $0.12, BU folds, Hero calls $0.06, MP2 folds.

      Turn: ($0.39) 6:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.25, MP3 raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.78 (All-In), MP3 calls $0.55 (All-In), Hero gets uncalled bet back (All-In).

      River: ($2.49) 3:spade: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $2.49

      MP3 just limped preflop, and now is minraising on the flop. There is flushdraw, so i should discount some outs. But i still have 2 nines, 2 tens and 6 straight outs. So 10 outs. And it's only minraise. So i think i can call.

      On the turn i decided to bet again, because i still need to protect from 4th :spade: . But then he minraises. I don't really want to assume that he has a flush, because, most of the times he wouldn't min raise on the flop with a flush draw. There's a lot of two pair combos, or he could even do that with overpair (?). So i decided to push. What do you think?
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello staktas,

      Flop: Yeah, against a min-raise with our pair+OESD should be totally fine to Call.
      Turn: Don't like the donk on turn that much. I'd really rather be inclined to Check and then take a loot at the opponents bet size. He will anyways have hard time to continue here and also FD is definitely in his range! There is flush on board, any 9x makes already straight.

      Therefore for conclusion what hands do you expect to beat? We still need ~33% equity here to make it break-even. And for example:

      Board: T:spade: 8:spade: 7:diamond:  6:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    30.61%  15.32%  15.29% { Tc9d }
      UTG+1  69.39%  54.11%  15.29% { 88-77, J9s, 98s, KsQs, QsJs, As7s, J9o, 98o, AsTh }

      Against this kind of range we ain't getting it. Which makes me rather think of folding be safer. :( That's also why I don't like the donk even that much.

      Best regards.
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      No, nono no no no no, no where near 10 outs :) You never count outs to 2 pair / trips in a limped pot on that board. Hitting either leaves you face-planting against sets (you get trips, they fill up a full house) or straights (your 2-pairs completes a 4-connected board).

      You have no safe outs here as even if you hit a red 6 to make your straight you are still dead to J9. Otherwise we have 6 good outs, 2 average outs and a weak hand with nearly no showdown value in a limped pot where you have bet and been raised on the flop.

      All that said, you surely can call the flop raise. The villain is a loose passive, 42-0, 1.3. This means his range is unpredictable and his ability to recognize poor board textures for hands like 2pair is almost non-existent - I would expect villain to ship 2 pairs, smaller straights, flushes, sets, even some Tx hands, especially with a spade.

      So I think I will bet-raise-ship the turn with you here. Sure, sometimes we are drawn dead to flushes (weak passive fish love flushes) and J9, but I think we are in front often enough that it is +EV.