[NL2-NL10] NL5 SH flush draw 4 way

    • wnbMG
      wnbMG
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2011 Posts: 586
      fold/call? i tought that one player had higher flush draw...
      then i realized that the second player was a fish vpip ~70% and third player was shorty...maybe thats a reason to call which maybe decreases possibility for higher fush draw...

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($5.53)
      BB ($5.04)
      UTG ($7.69)
      UTG+1 ($9.09)
      CO ($8.61)
      BTN ($2.33)

      Dealt to Hero 9:heart: 8:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.12, CO calls $0.12, BTN calls $0.12, Hero calls $0.10, fold

      FLOP ($0.52) 7:club: 3:heart: Q:heart:

      Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.36, CO calls $0.36, BTN calls $0.36, Hero calls $0.36

      TURN ($1.96) 7:club: 3:heart: Q:heart: 9:club:

      Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $2.08, CO calls $2.08, BTN calls $1.85 (AI), Hero folds

      RIVER ($7.97) 7:club: 3:heart: Q:heart: 9:club: 4:heart:

      UTG+1 bets $2.80, CO calls $2.80

      UTG+1 shows A:club: A:spade:
      (Pre 87%, Flop 83.5%, Turn 92.9%)

      CO shows J:diamond: Q:club:
      (Pre 7%, Flop 5.8%, Turn 3.6%)

      BTN shows Q:spade: J:heart:
      (Pre 7%, Flop 10.7%, Turn 3.6%)

      UTG+1 wins $12.67
  • 2 replies
    • l33tNinja
      l33tNinja
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.08.2011 Posts: 9
      I'mma take a shot at this.

      [Hand Reading]
      If I didn't scroll down and see the results, I would have guessed that at least one of the two (the BTN) cold callers had a middle pair up to that they wanted to setmine or play to see a flop.

      Both those two guys calling the flop bet makes me think they at least one has a set.

      So after the turn, if I hit my trip 9s someone could fill up a boat.


      Pre-flop: I guess this is an ok call because of all the overcallers and your hand plays well multi-way. Though I would be weary of your position.

      Flop: looks fine, good odds to draw to your flush

      Turn: you have
      a) a pair which is not worth much
      b) 2 seemingly fairly clean outs to trip 9s (since you have a heart and one of the two clubs is a 9 on the board), but could fill up a boat... let's say it's 1 out.. (50% chance that someone will fill up)
      c) 9 outs to a non-nut-flush

      at 11 outs, that's a 24% chance to hit your hands (which may not be that strong), you need to call 26.1% of what's already in the pot. Also, once you hit the flush, you may not get paid off.

      at 10 outs discounting the trip 9's by 50%, you definitely should not call the turn.

      So in conclusion, I would've played it the same =)
      But I'm a newbie.

      Can someone put in some equity numbers?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello wnbMG,

      First of all it's kinda hard to put equity numbers while you even don't know the opponents and you have 3 of them. :> Also as you see that he is even over-betting it and getting so many Calls. Your FD could easily be even dead and there might be better FD.

      Or as well could already be against set which means we even have to discount FD outs. Therefore I'd play most likely the same way on turn and fold it without knowing the opponents. No point to go crazy with just some weak FD.

      But of course if we taking our FD being very clean then you can even consider to go for a Call. Since you are getting amazingly perfect odds.

      Best regards.