variance

    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      I've played 2 million hands online. Variance has bitten me over and over. Losing 40 buy-ins became a normal part of my game. In my process of anylizing my big pot hands I found that aces get cracked 23.5% vs a random pair not including AA. As per poker stove I have 81.5% equity. Not much difference but that's 285 pre-flop showdowns and lost 12 buy-ins that shouldn't have been lost, but that's variance.

      What surprised me was flopping a set, how often was I up against an overpair to the board, with 90% equity getting my stack in and losing 26% of the time.(note:over 96 flop all ins). Lost 25 out of 96 such situations. Another 15 buy ins do to variance that should have been won.

      How often is your set up against a bigger set? Out of 73 such situations my set was up against a bigger set 46 times.

      Now this is where the math fails me. How often you flop a set on a 2 suited flop and lose to that flush???
      607 such situations, flush improved 264 times, that's 43.5%. Losing more buy-ins this way then any other. Not saying that my set is against a flush each time, but it either minimizes your winning or maximizies your losses. In 137 situations where my set WAS vs a draw, flush, str8 or gutter, I lost 52%. I find this alarming.

      Any advice out there??
  • 25 replies
    • ExternalUseOnly
      ExternalUseOnly
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2010 Posts: 3,373
      Im not sure what the question is really :P yeah ofc 2 million hands is a big sample size but when you break down each specific situation that you mention the numbers arent that high e.g 96 times set vs over pair, 96 times is hardly anything really the more you play those situations the more variance will even out again.


      And when you say "another 15 buy ins that should have been won" why should they have been won? because you got your money in ahead? nothing is certain unless you get it in with the stone cold nuts ofc you were highly likely to win the hands but to be successful you need to learn that suckouts will happen sometimes more than they are "supposed" to happen you just need to get you head back down shake it off and keep getting the money in.

      What stakes/game types are your 2m hands over btw?

      Carl
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      NL 10$ through NL200 FR and 6max.

      Of course 96 isn't much. that was one specific situation. Losing more than your average pot due to variance is understanding. But losing to overpairs more often then one should tells me I DO NOT have a hope in hell in any limit I've played and flush draws kicking my ass over and over.

      the problem has been the same. Win 50 buy-ins, lose 51.

      I flopped a set 1155 times
      416 flop all ins that I manually inputed,
      66x vs set<43 times was up vs bigger set and no read for the most part
      96x vs overpair< lost 25
      79x vs top pair< lost 6, runner runners are always nice
      97x vs a flush draw<lost 52 < mind boggling
      rest are vs oak bluffs and mid, btm pairs and 2 pair
      ----------------
      Note: sets I have tracked over 700k hands

      Just trying to grasp my head around a bad run for the last 3 yrs. it's been a yo-yo ride and repetitive.

      My confidence got shit on when playing NL100 FR over a year ago. After 500k hands, my W/R was barely break even, but do to rakeback and such BR kept growing. Then the shit hit the fan. Players seen that I couldn't fold overpairs, so they set mined and played s-conn and gappers often and kept stacking myself. Try that now!!! :D

      Dropped back to NL50 and the same, down to 25, same. AA got beat by KK 14 times out of 42 in 5 weeks. The same vs QQ, lost 7 out of 16. AA vs AA 10 times over 6 weeks. Sets win small lose big blah blah ;(

      Have always told myself that variance will even out over time, but really losing faith here.

      4$ tables and can't win ?( W/R -6bbs/100) both FR and 6 max
      2$ tables my w/r is 20bbs/100

      I play semi tight semi aggressive for the most part, those suckouts are expected, but not at the rate it has been going for the last 1.2 million hands that I have tracked. Looking for the brighter side of things.
    • Eyewitness
      Eyewitness
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2010 Posts: 6,157
      Pics (graph) or it didnt happen.
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      eyewitness. Come up with something intelligent or.... well you can finish that sentence :D
    • ExternalUseOnly
      ExternalUseOnly
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2010 Posts: 3,373
      yeah but what im saying is that the number of times these things happen will start to look "normal" after enough situations.

      Im not the most qualified to talk about poker concepts but i know this is normal and happens to many people but you just have to keep getting your money in good and things do go your way in the long run.

      Hope you dont mind me saying but you seem to be struggling with your mindset slightly have you worked on this at all? You could start by reading through the Q&A with Jared Tendler which you can find here:
      +++Q&A with Jared Tendler!!+++

      Anyway hope you start running good soon
      Carl
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      Read and re-read many books and I don't play bad do to bad runs for a long time now. My mindset would be re-aligned knowing it's just not me running this bad
      Still looking for the silver lining, for now I'll keep playing nickel and dimes until math make sense. Been saying this for 2 years now :f_cool:

      I've played many networks all with the same results l[img][IMG]https://img560.imageshack.us/img560/9329/partyyt.png[/IMG] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]
      [img][IMG]https://img220.imageshack.us/img220/5827/hanmeroid.png[/IMG] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]
      [img][IMG]https://img685.imageshack.us/img685/6140/boozr.png[/IMG] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

      The last graph is from stars b4 my acc't got hacked, nothing made sense there

      I lost the hands from other sites but you get the idea
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Where are your EV lines? Your graph looks more like a slight winning reg that tilts a lot.
    • ExternalUseOnly
      ExternalUseOnly
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2010 Posts: 3,373
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      Where are your EV lines? Your graph looks more like a slight winning reg that tilts a lot.
      +1

      You probably have a few leaks that need to be plugged just like we all do, how do you study your game? Articles, vids, the coachings here (or private ones may be an idea to find some leaks) hand eval forums all should be used together for max effect but im sure you already know this ;)

      Why not try finding some players to sweat with you can learn a lot about your own game by watching somebody else play and maybe somebody could teach you a couple of things in return

      :)
      Carl
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      Thanx for the replies. Of course I review all hands, read a lot more then anyone as I enjoy reading A LOT!!!!

      I'm talking about variance, not bad play.

      Am I gr8, hell no, are you?

      It has gotten so bad that I now play only 25c SnGs. AK vs rags 15 times lost 10. Bad play? Tilt? or Variance.

      Not that I'm doing badly, but hands like AK,AQ losing more then 40% at the moment. Cash games it's sets that get outdrawn more often then they should. In tournies its hands that I'm 70% fave. Losing 53%. I'm talking AK,AQ,AJ,AT vs smaller aces. Same hands vs 57, T3s T4s KQ blah blah, 15x lost 11. 60-65% fave, losing 73.3%.

      I've only played 96 tournies so far, will get back to you when I reach 500

      [img][IMG]https://img560.imageshack.us/img560/7797/25z.png[/IMG] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

      Tilting isn't putting your money in good is it? I don't win tilt either. My emotions are in check every session I play.

      Some situations are losing more often then they should be for whatever reasons.....

      Thanks for allowing me to babble.
    • ExternalUseOnly
      ExternalUseOnly
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2010 Posts: 3,373
      Thats ok its what this place is for we like people to babble.

      We should continue to review our games all the time to improve as much as possible its great to read that you do a lot of session reviews and read books articles but sometimes we need that little extra more, after 2m hands to be a breakeven or slightly losing player suggests that there is something wrong, something else than how badly your sets seem to be running.

      Have you tried sweat sessions? i know i already mentioned it ITT but they really can be a great way of finding leaks.

      Start a blog if you havent already its a great way to track progress and motivate yourself to succeed and play the best you can all the time.


      Nice start to your tournaments :) let us know how it goes wont ya

      Carl
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      I'm telling ya, the worse luck I have. I just can't get a grasp on these numbers.
      I realize not many hands played so far after 264 tournies but AK, AQ, AJ hands getting outdrawn by smaller aces 40% of the time. AK,AQ,AJ vs random junk (57s, 3Ts, J6s etc..)
      65% equity I lose 69.4% so far.
      AK vs pair I sucked out 29% so far.

      38vs Ax,Axs lost 15
      38x vs 22-QQ lost 27
      36x vs WTF you calling with that? lost 25

      Sets!!! Don't get me started lol.

      [img][IMG]https://img585.imageshack.us/img585/3246/unledwek.png[/IMG] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]
    • Aruniux
      Aruniux
      Gold
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 207
      you have good days and bad days, you win with bad cards, and loose with premium cards, but you must grind grind grind thats all what you can do.



      Uploaded with ImageShack.us
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      [img]<script src='http://img94.imageshack.us/shareable/?i=unledeog.png&p=tl' type='text/javascript'></script><noscript>[IMG]https://img94.imageshack.us/img94/8037/unledeog.png[/IMG]</noscript>[/img]

      It's starting . Played 56 1$ tournies, to be knocked out 21 of them as fave. Something about moving up, whether cash or tournies that I get smashed.

      [img][IMG]https://img265.imageshack.us/img265/562/unledx.png[/IMG] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

      Roi at 25c tables WAS 58%
      1$ tables, WELL??????


      Be back to show my graph when reached 150 1$ tournies.
      I still can't believe AK,AQ.AJ vs junk not including an A, I lost 28 so far 28/45= losing 62%
      53x AK,Aq.AJ vs weaker aces, lost 15= losing 28%, that's fine
      AK,AQ,AJ vs a pr 46x won 16, suckout 35%.
      The hands that I folded AQ,AJ to all in pre flop, would have lost many more
      when you get to see showdown, it's amazing!!!!
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      hey racenutalways,

      it seems to me you're quite diligent in posting updates :D

      why don't you start a blog? might help you keep track of your progress as well as keep your thoughts organized :)

      just a thought.

      smiles,
      wendy
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      Tracking my progress for 3 yrs + It's how I know when I put my money in as fave
      I'm losing more in certain situations then I should be.
      MATH isn't jiving!!! Being 62-66% fave you would expect to win near 60%. I'm running so bad that my ITM is 1.69????
      A uber nit can win more then I......

      Some go years playing with bad luck. Understandable!!

      I've been told math will even out over time. I agree as I'm a math guy...

      At one limit all math is adding up, the other limit it's way off???

      Un-explainable as most winning players also have luck on their side.
      If your Aces aren't being cracked 23% of the time, you're lucky. If flopping a set makes you smile, not cringe and say, "Here goes another stack", you're lucky LOL

      If your AK is outdrawing pairs 45%, you're lucky.
      If AK isn't being outdrawn by random junk 70% of the time. You are lucky!

      I WANT TO BE LUCKY!!!! :D

      Just 1/8ths the luck that beginners have :D
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      fizz, you've been around a long time?

      Any good reads on long time bad runs, not bad beat shit, but actual known good players writing about their long (uhumm, more then 1 million hands) downswings???

      thanx 4 ur time
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      hey racenutalways, i guess i have been around this community for quite a while. i've never really paid attention to bad beat articles or stories simply because i wasn't really interested in them. but i've often heard the best players say, that you will run worse than you could ever imagine.

      i know who might be able to provide a good answer though- our most beloved coach, Black Member, sick grinder, baller poker pro, TwiceT. ask in this thread where he has promised to answer all questions:

      AMA: TwiceT

      for a fellow sng player, you might also want to check Tim64's blog. there has been a good discussion and links in there about running bad there and i think he has some graphs that might interest you. (its taking me ages to sift through the mirrion pages of his blog so i hope you will take the time to read this :s_evil: )

      Liar Dice – Rise of the Mercurial Poker Machine

      Liar Dice – Rise of the Mercurial Poker Machine


      hope that helps.
    • theyungstar
      theyungstar
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 5
      Maybe its not just "variance" and the way you play or games you play. If you are playing large tournaments, the chances of you making the money are less likely. Try tweaking your game, and experimenting with the games you play. Maybe start grinding at 1 table SNGs and you will make money with proper bankroll management if you are a above average player.
    • eteris
      eteris
      Silver
      Joined: 26.08.2007 Posts: 383
      or maybe you are like this guy and variance has nothing to do with it?
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