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[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH. QQ in 3bet pot.

    • Pkrpains
      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($16.09)
      Hero ($10)
      UTG ($2.32)
      CO ($5.87)
      BTN ($9.70)

      Dealt to Hero Q:heart: Q:diamond:

      fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.35, fold, Hero raises to $1.10, BTN calls $0.75

      FLOP ($2.25) 8:club: 9:heart: 7:diamond:

      Hero bets $1.50, BTN raises to $6.75, Hero raises to $8.90 (AI), BTN calls $1.85 (AI)

      TURN ($19.45) 8:club: 9:heart: 7:diamond: A:spade:

      RIVER ($19.45) 8:club: 9:heart: 7:diamond: A:spade: 9:club:

      Opponent is fishy 37/11/2 AF, 20WTSD, 12W$SD in 78 hands

      Is it ok to go broke on flop here?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Pkrpains,

      Not really. Not the greatest flop to go broke. Of course we have some kind of equity but now against most likely not the greatest one. I might even be for a weak fold here. :( Just what kind of hands should we beat here? Of course he is a fish but he as well must see that our 3bet range is strong:

      Board: 8:club: 9:heart: 7:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    67.57%  66.32%   1.25% { KK+, JJ-77 }
      UTG+1  32.43%  31.18%   1.25% { QdQh }

      As I would imagine being the case. Of course we could as well add some 2pair combos and maybe even pair+draw or whatsoever. Since I'd rather expect him to slowplay with a hand like JT.

      But definitely a tough spot. If we add a bit into his range:

      Board: 8:club: 9:heart: 7:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    64.52%  63.46%   1.06% { KK+, JJ-77, A9s, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, A9o, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }
      UTG+1  35.48%  34.42%   1.06% { QdQh }

      We still ain't doing very great. :( We need ourselves ~37% equity to make it break-even. So should at least have an overview. Also if he is even rather passive player would be hard to be ahead here. :(

      Best regards.