[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH QQ, Bet/Fold a wet board

    • Alleen86
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 5,254

      I 3bet the CO preflop, but got a call from the BB. The flop gave me an overpair and a straightdraw, but then he check/raised me. Since he had called my 3bet OOP preflop, I don't expect him to be on a draw that often, but he can easily have a set, Kings or Aces.. On the other hand, he is very aggressive postflop.. What to do here?

      CO: 21/17/32/64/2,8/479 (VPIP/PFR/ST/Fv3B/AF/H)
      BB: 31/18/57/43/50/33/5,0/64 (VPIP/PFR/FvST/CvST/FvCB/RvCB/AF/H)

      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      UTG ($11.38)
      CO ($12.55)
      Hero (BTN) ($10)
      SB ($22.86)
      BB ($10.30)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BTN Q:spade: Q:heart:
      1 fold, CO raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, BB calls $0.80, CO folds

      Flop: J:diamond: 8:spade: 10:diamond: ($2.15, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.40, BB goes all-in $9.40, Hero folds

      Final Pot: $12.95

      BB wins $12.62 (net +$2.22)

      Hero lost $2.30
      CO lost $0.30
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Alleen86,

      From what do you say that he is aggressive postflop? Do you have any reads? To base for only 64 hands, I wouldn't really take them as very good sample. :)

      But about his play it's kinda close. It's anyways a made hand that's pretty sure and most likely at the best we might get a flip. So overall it shouldn't even be wrong if you want to avoid the variance and want to fold. But if he is some kind of station-like opponent and we would even put him on AJ here:

      Board: J:diamond: 8:spade: T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    57.01%  56.57%   0.44% { KK+, JJ-TT, 88, AJs, JTs, AdKd, AdQd, AJo, JTo }
      UTG+1  42.99%  42.55%   0.44% { QhQs }

      Then we still getting somewhat a flip. Although if we remove the AJ or something similar then we ain't doing that great anymore and most likely -EV move.

      Best regards.