[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH A5s 150 bb deep

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($11)
      BB ($10.06)
      UTG ($4.60)
      UTG+1 ($4.35)
      CO ($39.38)
      Hero ($15.49)

      UTG posts $0.10

      Dealt to Hero 5:diamond: A:diamond:

      UTG checks, fold, CO raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, fold, BB calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.30

      FLOP ($1.65) 4:diamond: 8:club: 6:diamond:

      BB bets $0.20, UTG folds, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $3.90, BB folds, CO calls $2.40

      TURN ($9.65) 4:diamond: 8:club: 6:diamond: J:heart:

      CO checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($9.65) 4:diamond: 8:club: 6:diamond: J:heart: T:diamond:

      CO checks, Hero bets $7.80, CO calls $7.80

      19/11/1.9
      wtsd 26
      w$sd 50

      1K hands

      As he called my 3bet on flop, he is probably holding something strong, so I am not 2nd barreling turn, I think I don't have enough fold equiety. Do you agree?
  • 19 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      That's something new. You are Gold, congrats. :D

      Against so many opponents I don't like to raise the flop at all. Rather take the implied odds and just Call. :) And yep, I am not barreling the turn, nice hand!

      Best regards.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      That's something new. You are Gold, congrats.


      yeah, for the first time :) thanks :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      That's something new. You are Gold, congrats.


      yeah, for the first time :) thanks :)
      How do you like the new articles? :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      havent read any of them yet :D not too much time for poker, I try to focus on volume, not on articles now. Because my volume is low, for examlple this month is around 11K hands.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      havent read any of them yet :D not too much time for poker, I try to focus on volume, not on articles now. Because my volume is low, for examlple this month is around 11K hands.
      Oh, I see. Good luck in putting volume.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      thanks :)
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      I think it all hardly depends on bb if he is a some kind of fish you can raise.

      I don't think 19/10/2 guy will go broke whit 99+ on this board and multi way pot even if board is wet ! But he sure will raise bb small donk.

      Cu have ((44+66+88)x3) +(QdJd+KdQd+KdTd) = 12 combos
      And he will have to fold ether on flop or turn 99+ which is 36 combos

      36/(12+36)=0.75 -> so he is weak in 75% of cases and you can take pot on flop or turn.

      So play would be raise flop to 4.5
      (4.5/(1,65+0.2+1.5+4.5))=0.57% needed 57% to be profitable getting 75%(his weak range) so should be ok + if he calls and folds on turn odds are even better.

      And if he raises he almost always have sets and if he calls he will fold to turn bet.

      flop 1.65+0.2+1.5+4.5+3=10.85 - > ship turn 10.59(your stack)

      Some players tend to just call a raise even whit over pairs on wet boards and hope for a check on blank turn.

      Even Aces on this board is not good in multiway pot, the only question is if he knows that---/ since he is 19/10 could be the guy--/
    • kinkink220
      kinkink220
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.10.2009 Posts: 64
      Hey, I like your play alot, especially the strong river push that may look a bit suspicious to a reg. :)
    • BigOVERBET
      BigOVERBET
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.11.2010 Posts: 433
      you can raise the flop, you can just flat...depends...also check behind on the turn...i think, i would shove there for value and cause i have some fold equiti
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      wow, so many comments :) thansks sausage646 for deep analisis, I read but I didn't understand everything yet, what is from where, so I'll have to take a look later, now I need to do some additional work with PHP and CSS/html so today I guess its no time for poker..
    • l33tNinja
      l33tNinja
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.08.2011 Posts: 9
      I like calling the flop and hoping the BB will also come along. Having 2 opponents go against your nut flush means a higher chance someone will have a draw to something that will pay off on the river (higher implied odds).

      But raising into two guys who showed agression on the flop before you may backfire if they raise again. So I agree with veriz.


      That being said, I have a question:
      What if he calls the original raise on the flop, the BB folds, but then the CO bets the 1/2-pot on turn?

      [Answers own question]
      You have only have 19.6% equity (to complete your flush draw on turn). but your pot equity on that bet is 25%
      I guess you can make up the 5.4% on implied odds easily for sure, so it would also be a call.


      How about a 2/3rds pot size bet on the turn? (~28.5% pot equity)? Can you make up the 15% on the river to make a call on the turn profitable?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      yeah, I agreewith you who say to call on flop. It sucks if they call flop and don'k turn, because if I call turn, they can put me on the flushdraw. Or maybe they don't? (because I raise flop)? But calling 2/3 of the pot would be not so fun on turn and raising turn - we would not have enough fold equity so its not ok.

      On thing is why I like raising with strong draws - to make pot bigger. If I hit I can make the pot much bigger on other streets. But on the other hand against two oppoenents who show aggresion we have much less fold equity, and its even worse if one of them folds and one stays in the hand. (I mean if they stay it is better if they both stay for bigger implied odds).
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      What if he calls the original raise on the flop, the BB folds, but then the CO bets the 1/2-pot on turn?

      With the implied odds we can easily Call. :) You pretty much answered your question already. :D

      How about a 2/3rds pot size bet on the turn? (~28.5% pot equity)? Can you make up the 15% on the river to make a call on the turn profitable?

      Most likely we don't. Unless we really expect the opponent to have a very strong hand and he is capable of paying us off. Good thing is this case is that we have the position. :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      Finally took a look at sausage's analisis.

      I think it all hardly depends on bb if he is a some kind of fish you can raise.


      I didn't check now in holdem manager, but most likely he is a fish. Good player would not bet so small in wet board in multiway pot.

      Your calculations are good agianst one opponent. But we don't know how often the bb is folding. Probably he is not totaly retarded, then he is folding all the weak pairs (unless he has pair + draw), and continueng with overpairs+. So the fold equity decreases.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      I don't think he is continuing whit over pairs especially after raise and re raise but yh depends on bb .
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      I don't mind playing raise-jam on such a flop vs CO. Against over pairs except AA we have 3 aces, 3 gut shot non flush cards and our 9 flush cards - we are a slight favorite - while vs AA alone we are only a slight dog, and generate a metric crap-ton of fold equity anyway. if he has a set, we have outs. If he has over cards, we take down the pot.

      The BB of course is the problem. 20 cents indicates an idiot trying to buy a free card. This bothers me as most idiots trying to buy free cards are suited, and if he is suited two of our outs are gone against CO (although if BB also calls and the flush hits, often we get to stack the BB with flush-over-flush, so BB being here isn't all bad news).

      I would go with Veriz' line here - play this one passive, because of the presence of the BB.

      IF we do decide to raise in spite of the BB (or if he wasn't in the pot) - raise bigger. Make it serious. By raising here you aren't trying keep the CO in this pot and take value, you want to chase him out and take the profit. Raise to $6 in a raise-jam line and maximize your fold equity. Your most +EV outcome is that the CO folds an over pair and you can take the profit.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      Originally posted by Jaissica

      IF we do decide to raise in spite of the BB (or if he wasn't in the pot) - raise bigger. Make it serious. By raising here you aren't trying keep the CO in this pot and take value, you want to chase him out and take the profit. Raise to $6 in a raise-jam line and maximize your fold equity. Your most +EV outcome is that the CO folds an over pair and you can take the profit.
      I can't agree.
      If he shoves on HEROS raise we are almost always facing sets but if he had a over pair he most likely will fold just because its 3 way pot and set is very likely and sometimes he will call - My plan was re raise flop 4.5 and on turn pot will be 10.85 and you can ship your 10.59 stack whit huge fold equity. No need to raise it bigger we are just losing money if he shoves.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      If you are scared of the PFR holding sets (rare here as 88 is nearly the bottom of a 15/11 OR range, even in the CO), don't raise at all - take the passive draw line. Besides, after you raised to $3.90 you are equity committed to call shoves even vs only made sets and straights -


      Board: 4:diamond: 6:diamond: 8:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    36.81%  34.36%   2.45% { Ad5d }
      MP3    63.19%  60.75%   2.45% { 88, 66, 44, 75s, 75o }



      End pot: $31.83. To call: $11.19. Equity line: 35.16%

      The very last thing you want to do is raise smaller here so you can big-ship the turn as a bluff if your draw doesn't hit. Your equity vs overpairs halves on that one blank card.

      So if you are going to raise, raise it properly and maximize your fold equity against the 99+ part of his range :) You don't have a correct fold to a shove in any case.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      75s and 75o isn't in his pre raise range but yh whit calculations you cant fold to shove I agree whit that . What will you do on the turn if he calls flop, check for free showdown ? And if he did it's almost always over pairs but now you have 9.09 $ stack and pot is 13.65 $ ?