[NL2-NL10] NL2 FR K5s freeplay from BB, flop 2nd nut flush draw & OESD, go broke?

    • Brevvy2190
      Joined: 09.02.2011 Posts: 28
      Flopped a monster draw here, just wondering if I was right in going broke with it on the flop even to villain's 4-bet? I'm only in terrible shape versus the nut flush draw, which is probably only going broke against me with Ac plus 7c, 3c or 2c.

      Known players:

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:club: , 5:club:
      MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.02, MP3 calls $0.02, 2 folds, SB calls $0.01, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0.09) 6:club: , 4:club: , 3:spade: (4 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.09, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $0.24, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.76, MP3 raises to $2.06 (All-In), Hero calls $1.30.

      Turn: ($4.21) 8:spade:
      River: ($4.21) 7:spade: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $4.21

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      MP3 shows (4h 4d)
      Hero shows a straight, eight high (Kc 5c)

      Hero wins with a straight, eight high (Kc 5c)
  • 2 replies
    • Brevvy2190
      Joined: 09.02.2011 Posts: 28
      I'm a bit of a novice with EquiLab but I've tried to run this hand through it.

      Assuming my 3-bet on this flop is unavoidable, the decision is whether to call the 4-bet shove for the last $1.30 (54.6% of the starting stack depth $2.38).

      Given villain the following range based on his 4-bet shove on this flop:

      AA-JJ, 66, 44-33, 75, 52, Ac7c, Ac3c, Ac2c (in order: the big overpairs, sets, made straights and nut flush draws with pairs and gutshots)

      Which produces equity of 53.25% for villain's range and 46.75% for hero (Kc5c). I don't really know how to do the required equity calculations, but having invested 45.4% of my stack already to discover that I'm up against another monster, this seems to me like it has to be a call?
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Brevvy2190,

      For 100BB we can't go broke here since we ain't gonna do it profitable in long run. Also we can't give him overpairs, why would we even? He limped. It's most likely aa strong made hand, I'd rather even be inclined to think sets only rather even some FDs. Even if we would put him on some FD:

      Board: 6:club: 4:club: 3:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    38.15%  35.74%   2.41% { Kc5c }
      UTG+1  61.85%  59.44%   2.41% { 66, 44-33, 75s, Ac7c, Ac3c, Ac2c, 75o }

      We are far-behind and ain't getting the equity for go broke. Which means we had rather to Call his raise than go broke.

      Best regards.