[NL20-NL50] NL25 AA vs station - thin river value

    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $21.17
      MP2:
      $27.48
      Hero:
      $36

      0.1/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:spade: , A:diamond:
      MP2 raises to $0.75, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BU folds, SB calls $2.15, BB folds, MP2 calls $1.50.

      Flop: ($7.00) Q:spade: , 3:heart: , 2:diamond: (3 players)
      SB bets $1, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3.50.

      Turn: ($16.00) T:spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB calls $6.00.

      River: ($28.00) J:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $8.5, SB calls $8.42 (All-In), Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $44.84


      With such a connected board, what are your thoughts on taking the river value bet?

      Despite very narrow hand read on the villain, please assume he is a station capable of checking/calling down MPGK on a frightening board (observed behavior already).
  • 3 replies
    • MaHnaK
      MaHnaK
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 4,226
      I am better off checking back river.

      Even though he is station and can call down MPGK, calling 3-bet range will be definitely narrower then his limping/calling OR range. He can call 3-bet any broadways, suited connectors, any PP's. On the turn/river, he can wake up with two-pair hands QT, QJ, JT and i don't see him playing SET this way.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      I wonder what kind of hand range we can construct for him, keeping in mind he is a complete station.

      I reckon Q2s+, Q7o+, JT+, 45, a4, 56, 22-KK...

      We only have 32% of it against that range. You are right, a check-behind would have been far more appropriate.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      He has there mostly Qx hand, so shove turn for value. if you want you can bet 8$ and rest on the river, but likely get called anyways if he has there pair, so I´d prefer just shoving before some scary card would come to you or him.

      With such a connected board, what are your thoughts on taking the river value bet?
      - yes, he has there more often KQ/AQ than QT/QJ consider he coldcalled your 3-bet pf