Attainable ROI in 9man $1.50 Turbo SNGs

    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,926
      Hi guys,

      I am such a newb fish to SNGs and after a ridiculously small sample I probably should be slapped in the face for asking this question! But here it is....

      What ROI should be attainable for 9 man $1.50 turbo SNGs in today's climate?

      My sample (135) games is obviously nothing so I just wanted to know what I should be hoping for after 500-750 games?

      EDIT: Second question (if I haven't already hung myself when asking the first)

      Should I be worried if there is a big difference between $won and EV$won? As my sample is small anyways it bounces around every couple of games but in the long run is there anything to worry about?

      Thanks in advance,

      Gary
  • 3 replies
    • Gavron23
      Gavron23
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.05.2010 Posts: 2,863
      Hey,

      There are much more qualified people to answer this, but what I at least suggest is that you sample size is really small(as you said) - anything but 4 digit(and even that) should be negligible.I would say a 10% and a little bit above is attainable in 1.5, but if you are crushing the limit and feeling more confident with your game, you should be looking to move up as fast as possible :) . About the $won and $EV won - these should have meaning with the sample as well.I asked about that some days ago, because my red line was troubling me, and I was told that I should worry if I have a 5000 games with redline going consistently down.

      I dk if this is helpful, but the main point is you should worry more about honing your skills and, rather than these statistics for now :) .
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,926
      Originally posted by Gavron23
      Hey,

      There are much more qualified people to answer this, but what I at least suggest is that you sample size is really small(as you said) - anything but 4 digit(and even that) should be negligible.I would say a 10% and a little bit above is attainable in 1.5, but if you are crushing the limit and feeling more confident with your game, you should be looking to move up as fast as possible :) . About the $won and $EV won - these should have meaning with the sample as well.I asked about that some days ago, because my red line was troubling me, and I was told that I should worry if I have a 5000 games with redline going consistently down.

      I dk if this is helpful, but the main point is you should worry more about honing your skills and, rather than these statistics for now :) .
      Would love to move up, but don't have the funds to deposit. I don't think taking a shot with 30 buy-ins would be a good idea :)

      Very helpful as usual Gavron23, just needed some ballpark figures :)

      Thanks mate,
      Gary
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by HollyMichelle
      What ROI should be attainable for 9 man $1.50 turbo SNGs in today's climate?

      My sample (135) games is obviously nothing so I just wanted to know what I should be hoping for after 500-750 games?
      I don't know how the play is in the $1.50 turbos, and the level of play of your opponents determines the maximum achievable and reasonably achievable ROIs.

      I can say that after n tournaments, the standard deviation for your ROI is about 150%/Sqrt(n), and it's not a big surprise to run up to 2 standard deviations above or below your expected ROI, +- 300%/Sqrt(n). So, it takes about 1000 tournaments to be confident that your result will be within 10% of your true expected result. After 135 tournaments your 95% confidence interval is your observed result +- 25%.


      Should I be worried if there is a big difference between $won and EV$won?
      It's not surprising to see a difference of up to about 200%/Sqrt(n) between your $won and luck-adjusted $ won after n tournaments. The luck-adjusted result is a little more accurate at predicting your ROI, but it can be flat or negative for solid winning players for stretches of a few hundred tournaments.

      Running above or below EV does not say anything about your playing style. You can play well and run either way, or badly and run either way. You can play loosely or tightly and run above or below EV.