[NL2-NL10] nl6 sh FD+oesd on the turn

    • tofu22
      Joined: 18.10.2008 Posts: 659
      Pacific Poker - $0.06 NL - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (CO): $6.33
      BTN: $5.85
      SB: $7.45
      BB: $3.31
      UTG: $4.07

      SB posts SB $0.03, BB posts BB $0.06

      Pre Flop: ($0.09) Hero has T:heart: K:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.21, fold, fold, BB calls $0.15

      Flop: ($0.45, 2 players) 8:heart: 8:club: 9:spade:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.33, BB calls $0.33

      Turn: ($1.11, 2 players) J:heart:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.83, BB raises to $2.77, Hero calls $1.94

      River: ($6.65, 2 players) T:club:

      no stats on villain
  • 2 replies
    • l33tNinja
      Joined: 15.08.2011 Posts: 9
      You have lots of outs, but the fact that the board is already paired makes them not as strong.

      Villain CALLING from the BB really hints at the BB having a pair preflop (common line for BB calling a raise). So you are really at risk of being up against a Full House.

      On the turn, you have 47.73% drawing equity with your open ended straight flush draw + pair draw.
      Pot odds: 41.2%
      Implied odds: zero (since your opponen is all-in already)

      What do you think the chance of him having a boat or improving to a boat by the river?
      Let's say 50%.

      I would discount my flushdraw and straight draw outs by half and not count the 2 outs to a pair of Tens as a strong pair draw. Your 1 out to the straight flush (9h) is uber strong.

      So that would be roughly 24%ish drawing equity, I would say.
      On top of that, you wouldn't be winning ANYTHING on top of that call because your opponent is all-in already.

      Therefore I'd be more inclined to folding the turn.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello tofu22,

      You need ~30% equity here. But against some made hands already which consist of of FHs I doubt that we getting that great equity. For example against something like:

      Board: 8:heart: 8:club: 9:spade:  J:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    26.86%  25.91%   0.95% { KhTh }
      UTG+1  73.14%  72.18%   0.95% { JJ-99, AJs, QTs+, JTs, J8s, T9s, 98s, AJo, QTo+, JTo, J8o, T9o, 98o }

      You ain't getting it. Therefore should be also a fold for me.

      Best regards.