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[NL2-NL10] NL 2 Equity question

    • Pilks7
      Pilks7
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.09.2010 Posts: 129
      I am just starting to figure out equity while I build my BR back up, so please tell me if I am doing some wrong calculations here...

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $5
      BU:
      $1.74

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant.Base 0.98 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J:heart: , 9:heart:
      7 folds, BU raises to $0.08, Hero raises to $0.27, BB folds, BU calls $0.18.

      Flop: ($0.55) A:diamond: , 8:heart: , 7:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU raises $1.48 (All-In), Hero calls $1.48.

      Turn: ($3.51) T:club:
      River: ($3.51) 4:club: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $3.51

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      BU shows (As 9c)
      Hero shows a straight, jack high (Jh 9h)

      Hero wins with a straight, jack high (Jh 9h)

      So I wasn't sure if this was a +EV decision, and so put it through the equlator:

      Operation completed... 990 games processed in 0 seconds.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 0.054 % 53.030 % 1.818 % 45.152 % As9c
      Hero: 0.047 % 45.152 % 1.818 % 53.030 % Jh9h

      [EDIT: sorry this is unclear, it shows 53.030% win rate for villain, 45.152% win rate for Hero]

      So according to the maths:
      1.48 (risk) / 3.51 (risk+pot) = 0.42 = 42%

      So this was a +EV call?

      (Sorry if this is not within the scope of your hand evaluations Veriz!)
  • 6 replies
    • Pilks7
      Pilks7
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.09.2010 Posts: 129
      Ok, so I realised I had not ranged villain, but simply used his exact hand here. So I changed villains hand to Ax, KK, which is pretty much the full extent of his range as far as I can see? (even KK is generous to add to his range I think)

      Equilator told me I now have 42.9% equity against this range. So I am still in good call territory here..?
    • Aerox232
      Aerox232
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2011 Posts: 422
      Equity Win Tie
      BU 56.92% 56.81% 0.11% QQ+, A9s+, AJo+
      SB 43.08% 42.97% 0.11% Jh9h

      And mybe he had somthing like Top pair +flush draw.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Pilks7,

      But as you were PFA then CBet the flop and would be pretty much committed. :D

      Why should it be out of my scope? :) Pretty standard hand, you can ask whatever you want. Also if you have any further questions feel free to ask.

      Equity = ~42% which is correct. = break-even, although even a bit more since we have to exclude rake.

      But you can't put the opponent only on one hand. We have to put the opponent on a range. Maybe something similar:

      Board: A:diamond: 8:heart: 7:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    57.60%  57.49%   0.10% { 88-77, AJs+, AJo+ }
      UTG+1  42.40%  42.30%   0.10% { Jh9h }

      As you see ain't getting it, at the best maybe a break-even Call. So therefore we should fold the hand rather than Call with just a draw.

      Best regards.
    • Pilks7
      Pilks7
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.09.2010 Posts: 129
      Ok thanks, I did range him in the second post but no matter, it was still ~42%.

      So are there situations where i should raise to give myself better odds for a call should villain push? Or should this be avoided, as it seems slightly self-defeating?
    • BigOVERBET
      BigOVERBET
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.11.2010 Posts: 433
      lead the flop...commit yourself...win...print moneyzzz:P
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Pilks7
      Ok thanks, I did range him in the second post but no matter, it was still ~42%.

      So are there situations where i should raise to give myself better odds for a call should villain push? Or should this be avoided, as it seems slightly self-defeating?
      By betting it yourself on flop while you were even PFA. :D