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[NL2-NL10] nl5 FR KT

    • Jim4rdo
      Jim4rdo
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2010 Posts: 1,252
      What do you think of this hand?

      Villain is 17/14 over smallish sample. 3bets 17%, and has 3bet defended his BB last 2 times.

      So I figured this would be a pretty good spot to 4bet light against a looser opponent who will probably have a much tighter 4bet calling range/5bet shove.

      However should I have 4bet bigger for more Fold Equity?

      On flop in 4bet pot with OESD and possibly high card out, can I find a fold here?

      Thanks!

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($4.95)
      BB ($4.92)
      UTG ($2)
      UTG+1 ($1.93)
      UTG+2 ($5.28)
      MP1 ($4.07)
      MP2 ($4.81)
      CO ($13.88)
      Hero ($5.93)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: T:club:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, BB raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.45, BB calls $0.95

      FLOP ($2.92) 8:diamond: 9:diamond: 7:club:

      BB bets $1.70, Hero raises to $4.48 (AI), BB calls $1.77 (AI)

      TURN ($9.86) 8:diamond: 9:diamond: 7:club: 7:spade:

      RIVER ($9.86) 8:diamond: 9:diamond: 7:club: 7:spade: K:club:
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Jim4rdo,

      Preflop: Against small sample I don't like 4betting it at all. :) It's still FR and people ain't 3betting that loose. :) Rather just fold it.

      As played
      Postflop: Should be actually rather a fold. We need ~35% equity for even break-even and it includes rake. Without rake it would be even bigger. For example against some overpairs:

      Board: 8:diamond: 9:diamond: 7:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    33.97%  33.22%   0.75% { KsTc }
      UTG+1  66.03%  65.29%   0.75% { JJ+ }

      We ain't getting it. :(

      Best regards.
    • Jim4rdo
      Jim4rdo
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2010 Posts: 1,252
      Yeah, I think I need to consider sample sizes a little more importantly to be honest. Over small samples I rely on stats a little too much.

      How do we calculate that we need ~35% equity here? I can calculate it calling an all in, but not sure how we calculate it for when we shove ourselves against a range.

      Thanks :)
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Curious as to what he actually had?

      I assume we can discount KK & AA from his range, and even include AK into his possible range from the actions taken.

      Given its BB vs BTN, I may even include some lower PP's, but question whether he would donk these once he hits set.
    • Jim4rdo
      Jim4rdo
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2010 Posts: 1,252
      He actually had ATs, so I was pretty badly dominated, even if it was a very light 4bet call from him.

      Best I was hoping for when I saw was a chop, but the K was a bit of a suckout. But gotta have some luck sometimes ;)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Jim4rdo
      Yeah, I think I need to consider sample sizes a little more importantly to be honest. Over small samples I rely on stats a little too much.

      How do we calculate that we need ~35% equity here? I can calculate it calling an all in, but not sure how we calculate it for when we shove ourselves against a range.

      Thanks :)
      Pot = $2,92 + Bet $1,70 + his stack left $1,77
      We have to put in = $1,70 + $1,77 which is his whole stack
      Break-Even = $3,47/(6,39+3,47) = ~35%