[NL2-NL10] NL10 Can I fold this on the river ?

    • vnomiadk
      Joined: 23.08.2011 Posts: 10
      First hand post! Hope I get it right =)

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($17.74)
      BB ($22.01)
      UTG ($10.10)
      Hero ($14.25)
      CO ($10.25)
      BTN ($24.27)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: 9:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, fold, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.95) 6:spade: 7:club: 9:club:

      UTG bets $0.68, Hero calls $0.68

      TURN ($2.31) 6:spade: 7:club: 9:club: Q:spade:

      UTG bets $1.65, Hero raises to $4.76, UTG calls $3.11

      RIVER ($11.83) 6:spade: 7:club: 9:club: Q:spade: A:heart:

      UTG bets $4.26 (AI), Hero calls $4.26

      UTG shows Q:heart: A:spade:
      (Pre 75%, Flop 13.0%, Turn 6.8%)

      Hero shows Q:club: 9:spade:
      (Pre 25%, Flop 87.0%, Turn 93.2%)

      UTG wins $19.35

      his stats - 34/25/42/11.5 73hands
      Is this AQ everytime? or does he have a lower 2 pair/1 and a failed straight flush/straight enough to make this an easy call. Have I commited to much to the pot to fold ?
      Maybe I should have raised the flop with the draws on board and this would have put me in a better position to win the pot?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello vnomiadk,

      Welcome to the NL BSS Hand Evaluation Forum! Hopefully we will see more hands from you in the future. I hope that with our help you can improve your play and as well move up the limits. We will be waiting for the next hands and till that good luck on tables!

      Preflop: You should fold the hand preflop vs UTG range. :)

      As played
      Postflop: Since a pot size raise on turn would be pretty much commit ourselves then I would just ship it directly on turn. :) If he has a hand then he is very likely to Call us anyways. Maybe even sometimes with draw+overcards.

      But as played I guess it's pretty cruel but lets take a look. We need ~21% for break-even Call if we include rake. Against some made hands:

      Board: 6:spade: 7:club: 9:club:  Q:spade:  A:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    15.00%  15.00%   0.00% { Qc9s }
      UTG+1  85.00%  85.00%   0.00% { AA, QQ, 99, 77-66, AQs, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, AQo }

      We ain't getting it and therefore against his line we might even consider folding here. :( Don't think that we can put a lot of more Ax hands into his range which we beat.

      Just overview the hand preflop where you made a mistake and actually should have just shoved on turn while your raise is more than 1/2 of your stack.

      Best regards.