Double or Nothing Winrates

    • philhellmutt
      philhellmutt
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2011 Posts: 225
      Just wondering what's a reasonable winrate for these tournies.

      I'm playing the $1.20 entry DON's in William Hill. Tried a $1.10 super turbo, but was shocked with how quickly the blinds go up. Never playing those again, nothing but a lottery and whether you're lucky enough to play your first hand in low BB.

      So far I've found DON's quite easy just playing super tight, cashing in a few after only playing one hand, or even none in some! Let the loose players bust out I say.

      Anyways, to profit in these $1.20 tournies a winrate > 60% is needed. Is this sustainable? I reckon I can do it, but I'm new to these so maybe not realistic enough?

      I find DON's really boring, but it's a great way to generate rake easily to get the PS $50. I wanna escape WH forever basically, withdraw these funds and play cash games on other sites with better software and traffic... :D
  • 8 replies
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Originally posted by philhellmutt
      Just wondering what's a reasonable winrate for these tournies.

      I'm playing the $1.20 entry DON's in William Hill. Tried a $1.10 super turbo, but was shocked with how quickly the blinds go up. Never playing those again, nothing but a lottery and whether you're lucky enough to play your first hand in low BB.

      So far I've found DON's quite easy just playing super tight, cashing in a few after only playing one hand, or even none in some! Let the loose players bust out I say.

      Anyways, to profit in these $1.20 tournies a winrate > 60% is needed. Is this sustainable? I reckon I can do it, but I'm new to these so maybe not realistic enough?

      I find DON's really boring, but it's a great way to generate rake easily to get the PS $50. I wanna escape WH forever basically, withdraw these funds and play cash games on other sites with better software and traffic... :D
      I will tell you if you tell me how to filter HEM results for DONs?
      Anyone know?
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I believe you can filter by the buy-in amount, rake, and number of players. Usually this is enough to specify a DoN level.

      While it is correct to call very tightly, there are times to raise widely. At times, small raises will take the blinds and antes which can be very valuable. It helps a lot to have a HUD which shows which players are running 5/3 who won't defend blinds and which players are 25/10 who are more likely to resteal or defend the blinds by calling.

      If you want to see players doing well at Double or Nothings, look at the Sharkscope leader boards. You can perform advanced searches on the players at the top of the leader boards, filtering by stake level and to DoN tournaments.
    • philhellmutt
      philhellmutt
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2011 Posts: 225
      Thanks for that. I read somewhere that our calling range should be the top 1/3 of our raising range?

      When I have the lowest stack and getting towards the bubble, I do tend to shove wide when there's decent FE and it's folded to me. But if I'm in 4th or 5th place near bubble, I just fold my way to the money. I believe that's pretty standard?

      One more thing, is it ethical to deliberately manipulate the time bank to ensure players on my left are in the blinds just after the blinds increase, effectively busting them out of the tournament?

      Having been a cash game player, it's taking time to get used to this new format... ;)
    • Scarmaker
      Scarmaker
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.06.2009 Posts: 152
      I've been playing DoNs for quite some time, mostly on iPoker and, well, it is basically a rake machine. The 10% or even 20% fee (on lowest stakes) is almost unbeatable or just very slightly beatable as there are simply too many regulars playing, so finding sites with best bonuses and promotions or having a private deal and raking the hell out of it is what makes playing DoNs profitable.

      You can get about 2-4% ROI on full ring DoNs ($5-$20) as there is bigger fish-to-regs ratio, but there is not enough traffic for those on iPoker and they just last too long.

      When in comes to 6-max, $20+ are literally unbeatable. They are full of regs with best ones having like -2% ROI, but earning thousands of dollars on rakeback every month.

      $10 are becoming epic regfests too as players from $5 are eventually moving up and the guys playing $10 do not have anywhere to move. It might get at least a little bitter softer with the coming winter though as in the summer there are less fish playing.

      $5 are still quite beatable, too many donks play them, but obvsly, you will earn less on rakeback.

      So, in the end, if you find a site that is running a number of good promotions for the month and you don't mind being just a "rakeback pro" and you are willing to play a shitload of sit & gos in a very short period of time, double or nothings are the best choice.
    • philhellmutt
      philhellmutt
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2011 Posts: 225
      Whoa, I'm starting to wonder if these tournies are very profitable. Playing only to quickly clear $50 of rake doesn't mean much if the starting capital gets into the negative. I'm making a profit so far in small sample, but doesn't seem there's going to be strong ROI in long-term from what people are saying here.

      Then again, I'll only play the $1.10 and $1.20 DON's, so these should be fairly soft?

      So far, I've only noticed 3 or 4 players who play these correctly - ie tight early, then loosen ranges with FE.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by philhellmutt
      Thanks for that. I read somewhere that our calling range should be the top 1/3 of our raising range?
      That's really far off. There are times when you push 100%, but could only call 2%. You might need 70% equity against your opponent's pushing range to call (even more than 70% in some situations) and how many hands have 70% equity even against a random hand? Against a top 40% range?

      A lot of players multitable massively without learning the basic theory. If it works, why change it? But if you don't get the ROI you would like, you might want to study more. There are players who are getting solid ROIs in these games over large samples. It isn't that they are good at coin flips, they are playing differently.
    • Scarmaker
      Scarmaker
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.06.2009 Posts: 152
      Yes, I think you can make at least some kind of profit on those $1 and $2 DoNs, because there are basically no regulars there.

      I remember back in 2009, when I first started playing sit & go's, I used to 8-table turbo $1,20 and $2,40 DoNs and 10-mans and after about 1200 of them I ended up with a profit of about $200. And that was with 20% fee and absolutely no rake back, lol. Obvs ran hot, but still it shows how fishy those games are or at least were (but I doubt $1 and $2 player base could get any better)
    • philhellmutt
      philhellmutt
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2011 Posts: 225
      I think I'll just stick with the $1 and $2 DON's and try to build the BR slowly... I'd be happy to make $200 in 1200 tournies!

      @ Pzhon - I'm doing some more reading both in the DON strategy section here and other sources, so I think I'm beginning to get my head around what's okay to shove and the right time to do it. Looks like my current strategy is already more 'correct' than most opponents at this level who are way too loose. Doubling up is nice, but people actually risk half their stack early with garbage... they're more than welcome to do it :]