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[NL2-NL10] 5NL Set of 5s vs Donked All-In on Turn

    • ScouseRob
      Joined: 08.05.2009 Posts: 8
      The villain is new to the table and is:

      (14 hands)

      Tiny Sample size but for what it is worth:
      AF: 3.0
      AFq: 56%

      (6 Postflop Hands)

      Donked 50% vs PFR (2 of 4)
      Bet 100% Turn and River OOP (3 Turns, 2 Rivers)

      I set up the turn to push but was beaten to it, what is his range here on the turn?
      (Or at least a decent estimate as I struggle with this part of my game.)

      Are the pot odds of 31% enough against his pushing range?

      Any thoughts on the flop raise and its sizing are also welcome.

      I was raising to push on the turn and if he had a higher set then so be it.

      But just then...

      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5, 5.
      Hero raises to $0.18, 3 folds, SB calls $0.16, BB calls $0.13.

      Flop: ($0.54) 7, 8, 5 (3 players)
      SB bets $0.54, BB folds, Hero raises to $1.62, SB calls $1.08.

      Turn: ($3.78) 9 (2 players)
      SB bets $3.53, Hero calls $3.20(All-In).
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello ScouseRob,

      Welcome to the NL BSS Hand Evaluation Forum! Hopefully we will see more hands from you in the future. I hope that with our help you can improve your play and as well move up the limits. We will be waiting for the next hands and till that good luck on tables!

      That's true that we need ~31% equity. For example if we put him on something like even 2pairs and of course made hands:

      Board: 7:spade: 8:heart: 5:diamond:  9:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    56.17%  52.27%   3.90% { 99-66, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }
      UTG+1  43.83%  39.94%   3.90% { 5s5c }

      It seems that we still getting even the odds here, therefore I doubt that I would fold it here. Also if he even has the 6x, why ain't he just Checking and letting us to bet? :) Maybe even overplaying some 2pairs which can very likely be from the opponent who seem to be rather station-like.

      Best regards.