Being below EV

    • Doubleup12
      Doubleup12
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.08.2011 Posts: 146
      so my graph looking something like this at the moment



      im playing 1+20 10 mans on 888 and around 35 buy ins below the line. Should I eventually catch up on this line and is this just like a phase that will pass soon? At least im in profit i suppose but bankroll hasnt changed much over the last half of the graph but the red line keeps on climbing.
  • 8 replies
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      It's a good sign that your red line is so solid.

      There is no restoring force. The cards don't remember that you had bad luck before. They don't try to make up for it in the future. You might have good luck in the future, which will make the difference between your red line and green line shrink, and you might have bad luck which will make the gap grow, in $.

      What you can say is that if you play a lot, there is a high probability that the gap between your red line and green line will be small in %. It's just like if you get 2 heads and 8 tails in the first 10 tosses of a coin. If you flip the coin 990 more times, you might see 480 heads and 520 tails. That would mean the % heads grows from 20% to 48% even though you still had more tails than heads. Your EV-adjusted ROI will probably get closer to your unadjusted ROI even though you could be slightly unlucky over the next few thousand tournaments.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Silver
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 22,026
      Originally posted by pzhon
      It's a good sign that your red line is so solid.

      There is no restoring force. The cards don't remember that you had bad luck before. They don't try to make up for it in the future. You might have good luck in the future, which will make the difference between your red line and green line shrink, and you might have bad luck which will make the gap grow, in $.

      What you can say is that if you play a lot, there is a high probability that the gap between your red line and green line will be small in %. It's just like if you get 2 heads and 8 tails in the first 10 tosses of a coin. If you flip the coin 990 more times, you might see 480 heads and 520 tails. That would mean the % heads grows from 20% to 48% even though you still had more tails than heads. Your EV-adjusted ROI will probably get closer to your unadjusted ROI even though you could be slightly unlucky over the next few thousand tournaments.
      Likewise if the EV is lower than winnings over double the sample?
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Yes, the same applies to that situation.

      You should be careful that there are some types of tournaments such as MTT SNGs where the luck adjustment is wrong and should be ignored.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Silver
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 22,026
      Originally posted by pzhon
      Yes, the same applies to that situation.

      You should be careful that there are some types of tournaments such as MTT SNGs where the luck adjustment is wrong and should be ignored.
      Does that just specifically apply to MTSNGs or would it apply to 1 table SNGs?

      Cheers,
      Gary
    • Doubleup12
      Doubleup12
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.08.2011 Posts: 146


      Starting to climb now :) although im around 100 bi's below ew still :O
    • matel17
      matel17
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 1,278
      So this is normal in poker?? See mine for the last 35 days and tell me what you think. I've been feeling like sh** but yours is so much worse! It must hurt!

      Building a life: one sit'n'go at a time (Advice is welcome!)
    • Doubleup12
      Doubleup12
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.08.2011 Posts: 146
      Its not great but it means at least i know im making some good decisions even when losing which is quite nice. Nice blog btw
    • Doubleup12
      Doubleup12
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.08.2011 Posts: 146


      think i have caught up a bit, still near enough 100 bi below though, but at least my green line is still going up!..slowly. :p