Being below EV

• Bronze
Joined: 25.08.2011
so my graph looking something like this at the moment

im playing 1+20 10 mans on 888 and around 35 buy ins below the line. Should I eventually catch up on this line and is this just like a phase that will pass soon? At least im in profit i suppose but bankroll hasnt changed much over the last half of the graph but the red line keeps on climbing.
• 8 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 17.06.2010
It's a good sign that your red line is so solid.

There is no restoring force. The cards don't remember that you had bad luck before. They don't try to make up for it in the future. You might have good luck in the future, which will make the difference between your red line and green line shrink, and you might have bad luck which will make the gap grow, in \$.

What you can say is that if you play a lot, there is a high probability that the gap between your red line and green line will be small in %. It's just like if you get 2 heads and 8 tails in the first 10 tosses of a coin. If you flip the coin 990 more times, you might see 480 heads and 520 tails. That would mean the % heads grows from 20% to 48% even though you still had more tails than heads. Your EV-adjusted ROI will probably get closer to your unadjusted ROI even though you could be slightly unlucky over the next few thousand tournaments.
• Silver
Joined: 27.09.2009
Originally posted by pzhon
It's a good sign that your red line is so solid.

There is no restoring force. The cards don't remember that you had bad luck before. They don't try to make up for it in the future. You might have good luck in the future, which will make the difference between your red line and green line shrink, and you might have bad luck which will make the gap grow, in \$.

What you can say is that if you play a lot, there is a high probability that the gap between your red line and green line will be small in %. It's just like if you get 2 heads and 8 tails in the first 10 tosses of a coin. If you flip the coin 990 more times, you might see 480 heads and 520 tails. That would mean the % heads grows from 20% to 48% even though you still had more tails than heads. Your EV-adjusted ROI will probably get closer to your unadjusted ROI even though you could be slightly unlucky over the next few thousand tournaments.
Likewise if the EV is lower than winnings over double the sample?
• Bronze
Joined: 17.06.2010
Yes, the same applies to that situation.

You should be careful that there are some types of tournaments such as MTT SNGs where the luck adjustment is wrong and should be ignored.
• Silver
Joined: 27.09.2009
Originally posted by pzhon
Yes, the same applies to that situation.

You should be careful that there are some types of tournaments such as MTT SNGs where the luck adjustment is wrong and should be ignored.
Does that just specifically apply to MTSNGs or would it apply to 1 table SNGs?

Cheers,
Gary
• Bronze
Joined: 25.08.2011

Starting to climb now although im around 100 bi's below ew still
• Bronze
Joined: 11.07.2010
So this is normal in poker?? See mine for the last 35 days and tell me what you think. I've been feeling like sh** but yours is so much worse! It must hurt!

Building a life: one sit'n'go at a time (Advice is welcome!)
• Bronze
Joined: 25.08.2011
Its not great but it means at least i know im making some good decisions even when losing which is quite nice. Nice blog btw
• Bronze
Joined: 25.08.2011

think i have caught up a bit, still near enough 100 bi below though, but at least my green line is still going up!..slowly. :p