Originally posted by Jaissica
It is an ugly spot. I lean towards an info-raise (in spite of our recent headline "killing the info-bet/raise" article) to find out now if the villain has an ace or a set or a draw or is just breaking "the rules" with who knows what.
By calling you basically commit to playing call-down three streets unless the board gets super ugly. That J doesn't really scare me that much. 9T got there, that's all.
If you are going to commit to potentially paying 25BBs on the turn and who-knows-what on the river, why not throw them in on the flop and see what happens. At least you will know where you stand rather than calling in the dark, or committing a pile of chips and folding anyway. A donk is rarely followed up by a check on later streets.
If you aren't going to call down blanks or near-blanks on later streets, just fold to the donk - though that is a very weak thing to do with TPMK.
All roads seem to lead back to an info raise - raise-fold line - on the flop, and against villains you think are capable of shoving draws it gets even uglier and more marginal - because you should raise-jam.
If you raised on the flop, what would you do on a blank turn? If he has a draw, you have to bet on the turn or else his call on the flop was profitable for him. But that will make it a big pot for a TPMK (and even TPTK). If you don't bet you're assuming he doesn't have draws in his range, so that 3bet on the flop just isolated you against better hands.
I'd call the flop and call the turn. If the river is a blank and he bets again I fold, I doubt many players bluff on 3 streets, and Ax hands don't bet 3 streets either.