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[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH - AK vs aggressive fish 3bet

    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU:
      $10.10
      SB:
      $3.70
      BB:
      $22.64
      MP2:
      $10.00
      MP3:
      $11.10
      CO (Hero):
      $10.00


      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, BB raises to $1.40, Hero calls $1.00.

      Flop: ($2.85) 2, 2, 8 (2 players)
      BB bets $1.10, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $2.85.

      Stats: 75/43/1.7/28, 3bet vs steal = 10%, foldBB = 17%, cbet = 83%, in 85 hands

      Vs 3bet:
      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 60.476% 55.94% 04.54% 111102644 9019161.50 { AhKd }
      Hand 1: 39.524% 34.98% 04.54% 69486297 9019161.50 { 99+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }

      Vs his shove:
      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 49.175% 38.86% 10.32% 29939770 7951130.50 { AhKd }
      Hand 1: 50.825% 40.51% 10.32% 31211649 7951130.50 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

      Should I 4bet here?
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Tosh5457,

      Not vs his sample size. We might at the best get a coinflip. He ain't gonna continue with a lot worse anyways unless he is some kind of spew-monkey. :D Although his stats may indicate even to that according his VPIP/PFR.

      You have been playing with him some hands, how did he look like?

      Best regards.
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Tosh5457,

      Not vs his sample size. We might at the best get a coinflip. He ain't gonna continue with a lot worse anyways unless he is some kind of spew-monkey. :D Although his stats may indicate even to that according his VPIP/PFR.

      You have been playing with him some hands, how did he look like?

      Best regards.
      I can't remember, it was some hours ago :P

      Would you consider 4betting if he had a 3bet of BB vs steal like 20%? That doesn't influence much his shoving range against a 4bet though, right?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well the problem is still the sample size which I don't really like. Although taking into account really such maniac stats then I guess it shouldn't be even that wrong.

      As far I understand he has been depending all his BBs. :D
    • CheckBop
      CheckBop
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.11.2010 Posts: 313
      So would like to call here veriz? If so what is your plan on different flops? surely we have to find flops to make a move on as playing fit or fold would make calling the 3bet -ev. This is why I would be more inclined to 4bet but as shown it is marginal and just folded AK to the 3bet is bad because if we fold AK we must be fold >95% to 3bets which is ridiculously exploitable.

      Each way seems to have it's issues... ?(
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by CheckBop
      So would like to call here veriz? If so what is your plan on different flops? surely we have to find flops to make a move on as playing fit or fold would make calling the 3bet -ev. This is why I would be more inclined to 4bet but as shown it is marginal and just folded AK to the 3bet is bad because if we fold AK we must be fold >95% to 3bets which is ridiculously exploitable.

      Each way seems to have it's issues... ?(
      For the given stats and if he really has been a maniac then I'd just 4bet and get it in. As you see the guy has been depending like 83% of his BB. Which is just huge.

      Also if I would even Call it here then I'd play back exactly on those boards when he even is doing a small CBet. I'd definitely float and reevaluate it on turn. Such boards miss his 3bet range very often.