Mathematics of Poker: Odds and Outs

    • AKM247
      AKM247
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.05.2010 Posts: 412
      Mathematics of Poker: Odds and Outs

      So I have a couple of questions about this article - An OESD has 5:1 odds from Flop to turn BUT 2:1 from Turn to River - why is that?

      Also, can the 4 2 rule be a useful application? On flop multiply your outs b x4 to see the percentage and on turn x2 to see the percentage, a point to note is that the more outs you have the less accurate the equation becomes. For example 8 outs for OESD on flop would be 8 x 4 = 32%

      Another point from the article - a very valid point - is your discounted outs. But how often do we assume the worse? For example we are drawing to a straight and hit but our opponent completes the flush? How often can we assume that he's made the flush - can we call down thinking we are beat or think that in the long run the flush will not have always been completed?
  • 3 replies
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Hi,

      For a OESD its 5:1 from Flop to Turn and 2:1 from Flop to River. Should make more sense now as you get the chance to draw twice.


      The 4/2 rule comes in handy and should be accurate enough if you need the percentages really fast.

      But when i play draws i prefer to not use the percentages at all i don't overcomplicate things.

      flushdraw example percentage:
      Flop: pot is 80, villain bets 20 -> i need to call 20 to win 100 -> 20*100/120 = 16,6% at least needed for a call
      percentage to hit flush ~19,15 -> call

      flushdraw example relations:
      Flop: pot is 80, villain bets 20 -> i need to call 20 to win 100 -> 5to1
      Odds for flushdraw: 4to1 -> call

      Its alot easier to use the Odds than the percentages.
      I hope there was no mistake in the percentage example.


      And last the discounted outs:
      You should always think about it if its possible that somebody is on a flushdraw. In an unraised pot (or raised multiwaypot) you just can't count all 8 outs for the straight because you never can be sure if somebody draws for a flush.
      But when you are drawing to a flush it's not necessary to always think that you opponent already has a set (and even if he does, you only have to discount 1 out on the flop, but your implied odds are even higher because he will pay you off easier.)

      The save way is, just to count the outs for the nuts or else you will be in strange situations where you can't really push your stack in fear of a better hand.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by AKM247
      Another point from the article - a very valid point - is your discounted outs. But how often do we assume the worse? For example we are drawing to a straight and hit but our opponent completes the flush? How often can we assume that he's made the flush - can we call down thinking we are beat or think that in the long run the flush will not have always been completed?
      In many situations where your opponents have not shown much strength, it's actually more relevant that your hand could win without making the big draw. Do you have an overcard which you could catch to beat top pair or middle pair? Could your hand be ahead of a lower draw or a pure bluff? If you ignore these possibiliies, you undervalue draws and you give up too often, particularly in position where you are more likely to be able to check behind with some showdown value.
    • AKM247
      AKM247
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.05.2010 Posts: 412
      Originally posted by chocular77
      Hi,

      For a OESD its 5:1 from Flop to Turn and 2:1 from Flop to River. Should make more sense now as you get the chance to draw twice.

      Thanks mate, clarified that for me - think I missed the simplest explanation there :f_cool: