funny spot

    • BigOVERBET
      Joined: 23.11.2010 Posts: 433
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
      SB ($30.08)
      Hero ($173)
      UTG ($62.31)
      CO ($33.30)
      BTN ($101)

      Dealt to Hero 9:heart: 9:spade:

      UTG calls $1, CO raises to $5, fold, [color=red]SB calls $4.50, Hero raises to $21, UTG raises to $62.31 (AI), CO calls $28.30 (AI), SB calls $24.58, Hero ???????

      I think i know i am behind here, but I dont know can I really fold because of the pot odds.

      Utg is fish taking a shot higher 35/22 with 6.5 3bet. Over 108 hand sample he never limp raised UTG.
      CO is fish 37/9 and shortstack and SB is station fish 37/15.

      I think i am never in good shape here. I reraised pre to isolate limper and go with one of the shortstacks.
  • 1 reply
    • sinsas
      Joined: 22.09.2009 Posts: 380
      It depends on what range do you put UTG limper, if you think he has you dominated most of the time its an easy fold. But I think fishes most likely will limp 88- pairs, suited connectors, broadway cards sometimes medium aces, and only part of the time they will have TT+, and fishes tend to do these crazy moves with their garbage as well as their premiums.

      So I think overall you will be in a ~CF situation against UTG fish meaning you have a flip for 60$ in a side pot, and nearly a ~100$ pot you can win in main pot.

      So with those stack sizes, you are flipping for almost 30$ against fish which is breakeven in the long run ( assuming this is a CF situation in the long run ) and by taking that flip against him you have to pay only 12.3$ to have a shot at the 100$ pot

      So lets picture one of the worst scenarios that fish has AK, and other two have QQ and JJ ( so even the fish has 6 outs ) you still have ~15% equity

      And since all of 3 villains are most likely a fish donation stations, the ~15% equity is one of the worst you can expect ( only few worse combos where some1 has like 99 or A9s T9s ) so overall it would probably be over 15% ( which is obv enough )

      Thats my theory on this hand, maybe its wrong, and i did not bother to do too many calculations so the numbers might be off. :D