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[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH - TPGK + OESD vs flop raise

    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2:
      $3.50
      MP3:
      $9.15
      CO:
      $18.20
      BU:
      $4.47
      SB (Hero):
      $10.14
      BB:
      $31.44


      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, K.
      MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, BU folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BB folds, MP3 calls $0.50, CO folds.

      Flop: ($1.4) Q, J, T (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.10, MP3 raises to $8.55(All-In), Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $2.5.

      Stats: 68/16 in 19 hands

      I think one of the biggest mistakes I made this sessions was this fold.

      I think TT+, KQ would raise pf, so:
      Board: Qc Jh Th
      Dead:

      Board: Qc Jh Th
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 64.295% 61.04% 03.26% 37464 2000.00 { KdQh }
      Hand 1: 35.705% 32.45% 03.26% 19916 2000.00 { KJs, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, KJo, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

      This doesn't count with FDs, but still big mistake, right?
  • 4 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Tosh5457,

      Well of course it's not a mistake. :) It's just avoid the "variance". But for the given reason that we need ~40% equity and if we put the opponent on something like this:

      Board: Q:club: J:heart: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    52.25%  45.09%   7.16% { JJ-TT, AQs, KJs+, QJs, Q9s, JTs, 98s, AQo, KJo+, QJo, Q9o, JTo, 98o }
      UTG+1  47.75%  40.59%   7.16% { KdQh }

      We still get it, which means that you can even consider going broke but now again it ain't a must. Variance is sometimes bitchy and rather avoiding it ain't a leak. Pretty much a flippy spot anyways.

      Best regards.
    • lokiah
      lokiah
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.04.2011 Posts: 60
      hi just coming in to see if my view is right..

      Well,Assuming he doesnt limp his TT+ from mp3 and doesnt have AK in that range...i think his range to shove on that board could be:

      AhXh,KhxH,AQo, two pairs,pairs with K,pairs with 9 , and of course made straights of K-9 and 8-9

      Personaly,Im thinking ur behind here most of the time and as Veriz says its up to u if u wanna take the hit. :)

      just my 2c
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Tosh5457,

      Well of course it's not a mistake. :) It's just avoid the "variance". But for the given reason that we need ~40% equity and if we put the opponent on something like this:

      Board: Q:club: J:heart: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    52.25%  45.09%   7.16% { JJ-TT, AQs, KJs+, QJs, Q9s, JTs, 98s, AQo, KJo+, QJo, Q9o, JTo, 98o }
      UTG+1  47.75%  40.59%   7.16% { KdQh }

      We still get it, which means that you can even consider going broke but now again it ain't a must. Variance is sometimes bitchy and rather avoiding it ain't a leak. Pretty much a flippy spot anyways.

      Best regards.
      But since he has a pfr of 16 over 19 hands, can't you take out TT-JJ, KQ, AQ+?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, with those stations you can't do that. You have only 19 hands on him. ;)