Hem calculating SNG EV wrongly?

    • Leito99
      Leito99
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2009 Posts: 754
      My red line is going up much faster then the green one consistently and it has been 1000 games already (200BI difference)
      that i started thinking maybe the EV is calculated wrongly on this site
      And i noticed that i never have negative EV in SNG which wasnt the case before on full tilt
      Could this be the mistake that HEM is making causing the red line to boost up?



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  • 6 replies
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I haven't checked this recently, but HEM definitely used to miscalculate the all-in EV for MTT SNGs, and the usual pattern was that the red line went through the roof and was not reliable. Some people have said that it is ok for STTs, but I would be cautious with anything other than a 9-player 50-30-20 structure or HU.

      It is not necessarily a problem if you get a negative adjusted result for a tournament. If you get to the bubble, push QQ and run into AK and survive, and then push AK and run into AA and bubble out, you will probably have a negative adjusted result for the tournament. You had a lot of bad luck (getting coolered) before you got all-in, and the all-in good luck of surviving with QQ vs. AK on the bubble is larger than the all-in bad luck losing with AK against AA, even with a larger stack.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      It is surprising that the all-in luck adjustments on tournaments 498 and 505 were 0. You always get all-in on the last hand of a tournament, and usually this involves good luck if you win the tournament. You also experience good luck when other players get all-in against each other and someone is eliminated. HEM is supposed to measure this.

      In theory, it could be that each time players got all-in, they had 100% equity or 0% equity in the pot, which would result in no all-in luck adjustment. However, I'd bet on a bug.
    • Bigniux
      Bigniux
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.01.2009 Posts: 2,098
      Originally posted by pzhon
      I haven't checked this recently, but HEM definitely used to miscalculate the all-in EV for MTT SNGs, and the usual pattern was that the red line went through the roof and was not reliable.
      Just to correct you on this. HEM never used to calculate EV (EV=Actual winnings) for MTT SNGs. The bug was that it wouldn't get tournament summaries from Pokerstars(because Pokerstars were not offering these) and every MTT SNG was shown as 9man (or 8man if 2 people busted on final table bubble). Which caused HEM to "think" as they actually are 9mans and the start of the tournament would be the first hand of final table, which obviously causes huge unreliability.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Hmm, was it correct everywhere else? That's useful information, thanks. I had looked at the all-in luck adjustment on individual hands, and HEM was assuming a 50-30-20 structure in tournaments which had other payout structures, but those might have all been PokerStars MTTs.

      Does HEM adjust properly for the all-in luck in DoN and Fifty50 tournaments?
    • Bigniux
      Bigniux
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.01.2009 Posts: 2,098
      I'm not sure about Pokerstars DoNs and Fifty50, but i checked few of DoNs i played on Ongame network(Bwin) and payout structure is correct.

      Currently, when tournament summaries are imported correctly from Pokerstars, HEM Replayer doesn't show any ICM calculations for MTT SNGs(even if it's final table)
    • Leito99
      Leito99
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2009 Posts: 754
      Interesting

      Thanks for the responses

      Red line out the window so...