Verre's American Football Betting Tips & Picks

    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      Hey all,

      I know in a predominant european site that doesn't allow Americans probubly doesn't have a lot of NFL followers, but at a gambling site we are all looking to put money on favorable edges. That is where I come in. I am from Canada and a huge American football fan. Over the years it's become apparently that I have the ability to pick games against the spread with a high success rate.

      What I'll be doing in this forum is posting my weekly picks against the spread (I use bodog sports betting for my lines). Each week I'll have another batch of picks. I'll keep track of the wins and losses and post my thoughts.

      With that said, the first game I have chosen is last years league champions Green Bay Packers against the New Orleans Saints.

      At the beginning of the week the point spread favored GB by 4. A lesson to all bettors. When u see a juicy line like this early in the week, take
      it the. I procrastinated and the line changed to 4.5 points. Although this doesn't seem like much this gives me alot more losing scenarios. That said this is still a solid pick and I put $30 down on the Packers covering.

      I will be back with the rest of my picks this week later, as well as my long term season bets that I have layed
  • 20 replies
    • roopopper
      roopopper
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      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      ok im going to be honest!!! i will need to see some positive results here, i recently had a tip to bet against man utd versus arsenal and its going to take some time to build my trust and my roll!!!! :(
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      Lol, I know a lot of people have been burned in situations like that before. I will not be charging or asking for tips though, any decisions you make to take my advice is on you and you only.

      The reason I'm actually doing this is because it is one of my strong passions and would be a great profession for me to be a professional handicapper. The thing anout professional handicapper is they need proven legit statistics to back up and keep thier job. This is kind of a way for me to start building a pick history and a fun way to interact with the ps community away from poker. I hope we all have some fun with this and possibly make some money.

      To get a little more into what I'll be doing. I'm going to have 3 catagories of games. The first will be the games I feel strong about and actually put my own money on. The second will be picks that I did not put money on buy feel strong about the pick. The third group will be picks I wouldn't put money on for my life. Hopefully I'll have little notes about why and how I came
      to my conclusions but right now I'm posting on an iPhone and don't have my notes or spreads with me. I just had to get the first game up as it starts in 3.5 hours from now.
    • wasy8
      wasy8
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      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      i'm really excited to see this.

      love NFL football and would definitely like to start betting on the games. didnt before because i wasn't sure if i had an edge in it.

      verre do you have skype?
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      So the first post I'm going to do is about futures in the NFL. Obviously the season is close to starting so these wont be much help to any of you but I've already taken advantage of the massive +EVs I see.

      Denver Broncos Under 5.5 Wins @ +110.
      $50 to win $55

      This was my first bet this year. I made this bet when it looked like Denver was trading Kyle Orton. Even though they didn't this team is terrible. I put them as the second worst team in the league this year right in front of the Carolina Panthers. This is one of my favorite picks so far this year, and that is why I bet a larger amount than I usually bet.

      Tampa Bay Buccaneers To win thier Division @+600
      $20 to win $120

      The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are my sleeper pick this year. I strongly believe that this team will be a Superbowl winner in the next 3-5 years. Thier GM builds this team exactly the same way I would. They are the youngest team in the league, highly skilled, and competed last year in possibly the strongest division in the NFC. Do I think they have an edge on Atlanta and New Orleans this year? No. Do I think they have a dissadvantage? No. Getting 6/1 on my money when they basically have a 1/3 chance to win the division? Easy money bet.

      Arizona Cardinals To win thier Division @+200
      $20 to win $40

      The NFC West is the weakest division in football. It took 7-9 to win the division last year, and I have no reason to expect any different this year. Two teams have got worse in this division (SF 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are complete jokes this year), and Sam Bradford and the St.Louis Rams have stayed the same, with Sam himself improving and his team around him degrading a little over the offseason. The Only team that got significantly better was Arizona. I am a Kevin Kolb fan and believe he can run an offense. The one position on offense the Cards where missing last year was a compotent QB and I believe they found it. Getting 2/1 on my money made this a simple pick.

      Those are my futures this year. I invested $90 to win $215. Aside from locking up my $90 for 4 months, I believe all these picks are solid.

      My next post will be my Week 1 Solids
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      Week 1 Picks I believe are incredibly solid and I myself have put money on.

      New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
      Packers -4.5 Points @-110
      $30 to win $27.27

      I believe the GB Packers are going to win the NFC again this year. The NFC as a whole has been relatively weak over the last few years and I dont see many steps to improve it. I watched all 4 Saints preseason games, and to be honest I was more than unimpressed. I've never been a fan of thier lineup aside from Drew Brees who happens to be one of the best QBs in the league. I believe thier superbowl two years ago was due to random turnovers at key times by oppenents more so than it was the saints forcing those turnovers.

      The Packers defense is one of my favorite in the league. Between B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and the discusting good secondary I do not see the saints being able to put up more than 20 points in this game. On the offensive side of the ball Aaron Rogers may be the second best QB in the NFL this year. His ability to manage an offense and make SAFE plays that do not turn footballs over make him a safe pick in this game. My only problem with this offense is thier running game. Thier starter was injured all last year and needs to be reworked back into the offense. Aside from this I think the Pack will win this game easily.

      Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
      TB Bucks -1 Points @ -115
      $30 to win $26.09

      The Lions have been hyped so hard this year by all media outlets in North America that this line becomes ridiculous. Yes they have improved. Yes they will win some games this year. No they will not make the playoffs. I do believe they will go 8-8 though. I'm a fan of Matt Stafford. If he keeps healthy this year he will be able to run his offense. I'm also a fan of N.Suh. I dont wanna butcher his first name so I wont, but he is a premier DT in this league. With that said I still think Detroit has an average/SLIGHTLY above average defense.

      In my previous post I talked about my love for Tampa Bay this year. Josh Freeman is a future star in this league and I have faith he will have a big year. Really I said alot about the Buccs in my last post that explains this pick.

      Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
      New York Jets -4 Points @ -115
      $30 to win $26.09

      I am a true Tony Romo non believer. He has the tools and the work ethic but he doesn't have the mental dissipline in the heat of the battle to avoid taking bad sacks and bad turnovers. I do not like thier offensive schemes and I do not believe in the offense at all. Thier defense is a different story, as long as they can stop the run they are above average in the NFC. Unfortunately for them they are in a division where there is 2 or possibly 3 better teams than them and they do not have an easy schedual.

      The New York Jets on the other hand are a whole different story. In my opinion they are the second best team in the AFC, and the third best in the league. Sanchez has the ability to keep an offense running. He doesn't have game winning abilities, but the rest of his team does. Sanchez doesn't loose games for his team though, and the jets real strength is in thier incredible defense. Possibly the best secondary combo in all of football, Revis and Cromardie will both have good years and the jets ability to stop the run is good. This was an easy pick for me as I dont have faith the Jets can put up more than 27 points, but I cannot fathom the cowboys putting up more than 20.

      Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
      Oakland Raiders +3 Points @ -110
      $30 to win $27.27

      Anytime someone will lay me points against the Denver Broncos, I'm probubly going to take it. The raiders are not a top notch team, and are probubly going to get stuffed by thier division rivals KC Chiefs and SD Chargers, but I cannot see them losing to the lowly Broncos.

      Oakland lost skill from last year, including thier Head Coach. With all that said until Denver proves me wrong in ANY WAY, I will continue to consider them terrible. If I was them I'd implode my team and build for the future.

      There are still a few games that have no lines from bodog yet. I'm going to wait to post my games that I believe in and games I wouldn't touch just because I dont know whats going to be availible. I might add one game to this list too that hasn't been given a line yet. There is no way Houston Texans will lose to the Colts in week one. Payton Manning will probubly be out for the year and he is the Colts heart, soul, and body. The team is basically trash without him and I'm going to assume the line is going to be something crazy like 10 and I wont bet, but if its closer I may bet on that.
    • wasy8
      wasy8
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      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      Not sold on your Oakland pick. I think Denver will hover around 5-11 or 6-10 territory but Oakland is just a complete joke of a team, especially after losing Nnamdi. I think Oakland will be a basement team all year while Denver will be reasonably competitive.
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      Heres why I disagree with you. Oakland lost Naundi, but that was all they lost other than Zack Miller who I will agree, is awesome. The rookie cb that replaces Naundi isn't useless though, and he will be sheltered by the raiders by always taking the secondary recievers.

      As for Denver. Bad coach, bad defense, bad offense, average qb, tough division. The best thing they can do is start Tebow and see what he can do. If not go for first overall pick.

      As for this Saints GB game. It turns out no one wants to play defense lol.
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      So one more pick this week now that the lines are in.

      Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
      Titans +1 @ Even
      $30 to win $30

      Alright so this line makes absolutely no sense to me. The Titans have a decent team, have a veteran QB, and have a stable defense. The Jaguars just cut their starting QB and have no hope of doing anything this year. In fact I think they are trying to lose to get a great draft pick.
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      Steelers @ Ravens
      Steelers +1.5

      I almost put money on this game. Although I like the Ravens, the Steelers have their number. The AFC is like a giant game of rock paper scissors.
      Steelers>Patriots>Ravens/Jets>Steelers..........
      Only thing that kept me from betting was the the Ravens are at home and that gives them a boost. If I had to pick one more game to bet on this would be it.


      Falcons @ Bears
      Falcons -3

      I like the Falcons in this game, but in a week 1 scenario I'm not laying any money on these teams. There are so many situations where either of these teams come out flat, and that in itself could throw a whole game. Reason I took Falcons is because I just don't like Jay Cutler as a QB and/or leader.

      Giants @ Redskins
      Giants -3

      Giants are the better team at almost every position. They are arguably the better team at coaching (probubly not x's and o's but players dont wanna play for Shannahan). Reason I didn't pick this game was again because its week 1 and there is a good change Giants come out and lay an egg.

      Patriots @ Dolphins
      Patriots -7

      I love the Pats this year. They are my superbowl pick. I think as long as they can avoid playing the Jets in the post season they will win. I also dont like the Dolphins as a whole(Exception is Cam Wake, who is an ex BC Lion and an all around good guy. I live in Vancouver and the BC Lions are a Vancouver based Canadian Football Team). The problem with this bet is that 7 points is a solid chunk of points to give up. Whenever a team is playing on the road and your laying points with them if they give up the first TD your essentially 14 points behind and it is always hard for a team to come back and cover that many points.
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      Bills @ Chiefs
      Chiefs -5.5

      Chiefs SHOULD win this game. They are at home, they have a better team, they need these wins for a chance in the division. With all that said I don't have much faith in their offense to put up points and therefore this line is just to large for me. If it was 1.5-2 points I'd probably scoop up this pick with no second thoughts.

      Colts @ Texans
      Texans -9

      With Payton Manning out this game is a joke. The Colts are a joke. The Colts coaching is a joke. Unfortunately the Texans "clutch" ability is terrible. They should easily win the division, but I have to see it to believe it. Also 9 points is a ridiculous line. With all that said they should cover but I would never put money on it.

      Bengals @ Browns
      Bengals +7

      Both teams are bad. Bengals in my rating are the third worst team this year. But I have faith that they can hold the Browns to a game in the trenches and keep the score very small. That is why I took the points with the Bengals. I do think Browns win this game, but not by more than 7.

      Panthers @ Cardinals
      Cardinals -7

      This game came close to my games I like but didn't put money on list. I like the Cards in their division, but I don't like them outside of their division. With that said, I have the Panthers rated as the weakest team in the league this year and I don't think the Cards could get close to losing this game. The 7 points is a big stretch, but I think the Cards will do it.

      Seahawks @ 49ers
      49ers -6

      I'll admit it now so you can all laugh at me. My favorite team since I can remember is the 49ers. My least favorite team is the Seahawks. Unfortunately I live 1.5 hours from the Seahawks stadium, and about 5 by flight from San Fran. Aside from that, both teams are garbage. Seattle announcing the terrible Tavaris Jackson as their starting QB before he could prove anything is laughable. Also, once he proved he is incapable of leading a team, he still remains the starter. That is some joke decision making. As for the 49ers, they have an above average defense, good special teams, and solid offense. Solid offense EXCEPT the most important position, QB. Alex Smith is a bust and the 49ers seem to want to turn a blind eye to this. I wish that someone in that front office would just find a way to cut the guy so they could move on. They had a chance to get McNabb but for some reason they didn't. Either way, I think they'll win this game but 6 points is a ridiculous line to lay and I would never do it.

      Vikings @ Chargers
      Chargers -9

      Maybe the most ridiculous line of the week. Chargers are a top 6 team this year. Vikings are a bottom 12 team. But in the NFL the discrepancy between the top and the bottom is not as big as some may perceive. The Vikings brought in McNabb to QB their team after they got rid of the terrible Tavaris Jackson. Its a solid upgrade although probably still a downgrade over the aged Brett Favre. Anyways, this line is 50/50 likelihood for me. I think it could happen. I think it might not happen. I'm so undecided on the whole thing I couldn't choose. I decided to go with the Chargers but its really a blind coin flip.

      Anyways thats the picks for the week. I'll be back with the results after the games have been played, and then next weeks picks.
    • 1984ioc
      1984ioc
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      Joined: 16.07.2011 Posts: 712
      Look forward to following Verre.Will you post your results and your YTD Profit/Loss balance after every bet/s so we know how you are doing overall.

      Ian
    • roopopper
      roopopper
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      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      yep have been silent for a bit but I am still following and enjoying your thread :)

      Roo
    • wasy8
      wasy8
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      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      Originally posted by Verre
      Bills @ Chiefs
      Chiefs -5.5

      Chiefs SHOULD win this game. They are at home, they have a better team, they need these wins for a chance in the division. With all that said I don't have much faith in their offense to put up points and therefore this line is just to large for me. If it was 1.5-2 points I'd probably scoop up this pick with no second thoughts.
      I am snap-betting the Bills in this game, with Cassel being injured.

      EDIT: should clarify, Cassel is playing. but is playing hurt. i think buffalo is a clear bet here.
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      Yeah when I made that decision on the kc game I read that cassel was fine. I then found out after he wasn't but it didn't matter much as I didn't put money on it.

      Overall a terrible weekend so far for me. I haven't got
      to watch all of the games I lost so far but I'm quite dissapointed with the results. Games like teneessee losing to the jags make no sense to me. Jets not showing up in the first half made my 4 point spread lose by 1 when all was said and done. The last game I lost was tb. I can't believe they choked a chance at being the only team in the division for a win. Unless the lions turn out to be a beast, Tampa let one get away (haven't watched this game yet though so hard to say).
    • ExternalUseOnly
      ExternalUseOnly
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      Joined: 30.01.2010 Posts: 3,373
      wow cant believe i missed this thread will def be following i :heart: the NFL wont be doing much betting with my BR but sure will be following
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      moving you to Sport section! :)
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      So I have made my picks for this week. With all that transpired last week I have a better feel for my picks this week. A few of my picks this week are rather bold as lines are steep this week. Just a heads up for when I post them. The bears are going to screw me lol.
    • Verre
      Verre
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      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      Green Bay @ Carolina
      Green Bay -10.5 @ -105
      $30 to win $28.57

      Even though the Cam Newton lead Panthers had a standout game last week, they are still one of the weakest teams in the league. Newton may have proven that he has the potential to be a hood QB he still has a lot to learn.

      On the other side of the ball we have the high flying Packer offense and stingy defense. 10.5 points is a ton to lay, but with a top 2 offense and top 5 defense it makes it easy to make this pick.

      Dallas @ San Francisco
      Dallas -3 @ -135
      $30 to win @22.22

      When you take a -135 dissadvantage you have to be right 60% of the time. This pick seems like a no brainer and will be correct much more than 60%. both teams defenses are comparable but the cowboy offense is better than the 49ers offense x2. The fact that it's only -3 points is a small price to pay. With all that said I'm still cheering for the niners!

      Tampa Bay @ Vikings
      Tampa Bay +3 @ -110
      $30 to win $27.27

      After McNabb threw for 37 yards, 0 Tds, and 1 interception, I have no idea how the Vikings are laying points. I guess because thier special teams scored a td against the worst special teams team in the league the line makers decided to over rate them. I think Tampa wil learn from last weeks mistakes and come out and win easily against a stunted offense.

      Seattle @ Pittsburgh
      Seattle +15 @ -110
      $30 to win $27.27

      15 points? Crazy I say. This reminds me of the game that got me into betting the NFL in the first place. Patriots where playing the Chiefs and they where laying 14 points. I essentially looked for any reason to pick the Chiefs and found one. The Pats didn't cover the 14 points that day and the rest is history. This is basically the same scenario. The seahawks have a reasonable defense. Plus the Steelers are coming off their worst week in 7~ years. Easy pick to lay the points. In fact since I picked this the line has come down because it's so ridiculous.

      Ravens @ Titans
      Ravens -6.5 @ -105
      $30 to win $28.57

      Last week the Ravens came out and dismantled their division rival the Steelers. It was a statement game that they mean business this year. The Titans on the other hand performed much worse than I predicted last week and sometimes when you see a team under perform u can see signs of promise. I didn't see much of that from the Titans.

      Bengals @ Broncos
      Bengals +4.5 @ -115
      $30 to win $26.09

      Last week the Broncos lost at home to a weak team. This week it is going to happen again. The Broncos are in disarray. Last week their crowd was cheering for their backup QB to play. This was clearly rattling Kyle Orton their starter. In interviews he looked and acted frusterated. As for the Bengals, they over performed last week. And like I said, anytime I'm getting points against the Broncos this year Im probubly going to take it.

      As for my last post about getting screwed. Somehow I swear I placed the bet and it just never went through.
    • rafski
      rafski
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      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 656
      waiting for giant post
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