[NL20-NL50] FR25 - Flush on R

    • chocular77
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Known players:

      0,15/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:heart: , 4:heart:
      MP1 raises to $0,50, 3 folds, BU calls $0,50, SB folds, Hero calls $0,25.

      Flop: ($1,65) 7:heart: , 5:spade: , 2:diamond: (3 players)
      Hero checks, MP1 checks, BU checks.

      Turn: ($1,65) 5:heart: (3 players)
      Hero bets $1, MP1 calls $1,00, BU folds.

      River: ($3,65) K:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1,9, MP1 raises to $9,35, Hero calls $7,45.

      Final Pot: $22,35

      My first thought on the R was, did he hide a set? Then i started to look for reasons for a fold. I looked at the AF on R (7,5) and because of this i called.

      Villains AF for every street: 3,7/2,2/7,5
      Openraise from MP1: 13

      I tailored a range of hands which he could raise:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 73.91% 73.91% 0.00% Ah4h
      MP3 26.09% 26.09% 0.00% 77, 22, AKs, A5s, QhJh, JhTh, AKo, A5o

      With this a call is reasonable, but would he really raise this high on this dangerous board with anything else than a full?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello chocular77,

      Well the only hope is that he has any kind of flush in his range. But can he have that? Plus of course it's kinda interesting that he is Checking behind on flop, might even be trap.

      But overall it's very close between Calling or not. We need ~34% equity here to make it just break-even Call here which means for example against something like this:

      Board: 7:heart: 5:spade: 2:diamond:  5:heart:  K:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    36.36%  36.36%   0.00% { Ah4h }
      UTG+1  63.64%  63.64%   0.00% { 77, 55, 22, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, 9h8h }

      We are even getting it. But definitely even very close spot. So it might be at the best a small profit spot or near break-even. I think against that kind of big raise I might even make the crying fold. Doubt that he is bluffing the river while he could easily just bluff it on flop with CBetting.

      Best regards.