[NL2-NL10] [NL2 FR BSS] Freeplay pot, Hit draw on turn

    • Elertar
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 164
      Known players:       

      0,01/0,02 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with T:spade: , 4:club:
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0,02, 5 folds, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0,05) A:club: , J:spade: , 9:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP1 checks.

      Turn: ($0,05) 8:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0,03, MP1 raises to $0,06, Hero raises to $0,18, MP1 folds.

      Final Pot: $0,29

      Is it profitable to play this draw as a semibluff?
  • 4 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Elertar,

      Nah, not really. :D While it's even a freeplay pot. What's your plan if the opponents 4bets you? :)

      Also you could even donk the flop.

      Best regards.
    • Elertar
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 164
      Well, my plan was to go all-in... This monster-draw concept from the MSS is really hurting my play. I have to forget it.
    • Philfox1985
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Assuming your outs are clean for straight/flush you have 15 cards you can hit.

      That equates to around 32% chance of winning the hand on the river. However, hands that would call are fairly limited and will include completed higher flush's that simply have us dominated.

      The only real reason to be pushing here is for the fold equity. If you get called you are in big trouble.

      The article on MSS was probably referring to a similar situation on the flop where your draws would likely give you around 40-55% equity depending on how strong opponents cards are. With fold equity & dead money in pot the aggressive play of shoving isn't usually a mistake on the flop.
    • Elertar
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 164
      Thank you for your explanation!