[NL2-NL10] [Nl2 Fr Bss] Facing a raise with a monster hand

    • Elertar
      Elertar
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 164
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP3:
      $2,33
      Hero:
      $2,29

      0,01/0,02 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:spade: , K:spade:
      2 folds, MP3 calls $0,02, Hero raises to $0,10, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0,08.

      Flop: ($0,23) A:heart: , Q:diamond: , 5:diamond: (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $0,18, MP3 calls $0,18.

      Turn: ($0,59) A:diamond: (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $0,48, MP3 raises to $0,96, Hero calls $0,48.

      River: ($2,51) 9:club: (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero checks.

      Final Pot: $2,51

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      MP3 shows a full-house, aces full of queens (Ac Qh)
      Hero shows (As Ks)

      MP3 wins with a full-house, aces full of queens (Ac Qh)

      Is my play on the turn right? I called his min-raise because I have 10 outs to full-house or 4ofakind and I might even be ahead versus 55 or Ax.
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Elertar,

      Well, overall I doubt that this kind of play is way off here. With the odds he is giving us shouldn't be a huge problem. But the question is if we can count our all outs as very clean outs? I mean we could be against AQ already.

      Best regards.
    • Elertar
      Elertar
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 164
      Mmmm, that's a good point. How can I make a decision on the turn then?

      I'll try to reason myself. If I consider AQ then I have 3 outs (3 K). Against A5 I have 6 outs (3 K, 3 Q). Against a flush and other full-houses (QQ, 55) I have 10 outs. But a flush is very unlikely, because of his preflop play. I can only think of K:diamond: J:diamond: and K:diamond: T:diamond: .

      I've calculated the equity on the turn against this range.

      Board:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 56.73% 48.15% 8.59% QQ, 55, A8s+, A5s, KdJd, KdTd, ATo+, A5o
      CO 43.27% 34.68% 8.59% AsKs

      I have to pay $0.48 to win $2.03. I need 23.64% equity, so if I'm not mistaken it's a call.

      What do you think? Thank you!
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well as I said it's not wrong with your expectations. :)