[NL2-NL10] nl2 - Ship on flop (AK)

    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Decided pre-flop that I was happy to ship it against villians stack size and likely hand range (once I had 3 bet).

      On flop I pretty much figured I was committed enough to my hand given villians stack size.

      Any better ways to play this?

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $2.42
      MP2:
      $0.75

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:diamond: , K:diamond:
      MP2 raises to $0.07, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.23, BB folds, MP2 calls $0.16.

      Flop: ($0.48) J:diamond: , 7:heart: , 2:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.52, MP2 calls $0.52 (All-In).

      Turn: ($1.52) 8:club:
      River: ($1.52) 3:spade: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $1.52

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      MP2 shows three-of-a-kind, eights (8h 8s)
      Hero shows (Ad Kd)

      MP2 wins with three-of-a-kind, eights (8h 8s)
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Philfox1985,

      What I would say here is that our bluff needs to be working for ~52% times. Which means that he has to fold 52% of the cases or we have to be ahead this amount. But lets say his range is ~7% which means we are ahead for ~2% of his range. AK we split. So therefore he is folding/we winning vs 28% range. Which means we are loosing to 72% of the hands and therefore our CBet ain't gonna work.

      Although I did even take a wider range. :(

      Best regards.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      I make it approx 33% equity we need?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Philfox1985
      I make it approx 33% equity we need?
      Sorry I somehow did put the wrong thought into it, re-read it. :)