[NL2-NL10] Cooler or I can find a fold?

    • EdVardenis
      EdVardenis
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.12.2009 Posts: 248
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($12.08)
      BB ($3.26)
      UTG ($10)
      UTG+1 ($10.63)
      UTG+2 ($10)
      MP1 ($10.58)
      MP2 ($7.75)
      CO ($10)
      Hero ($26.38)

      Dealt to Hero 3:spade: 3:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.85) 4:spade: K:spade: 3:heart:

      CO bets $0.54, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $0.96

      TURN ($3.85) 4:spade: K:spade: 3:heart: 7:heart:

      CO checks, Hero bets $2.30, CO raises to $4.60, Hero raises to $12.55, CO calls $3.55 (AI)

      RIVER ($20.15) 4:spade: K:spade: 3:heart: 7:heart: 9:spade:

      CO shows 5:heart: 6:heart:
      (Pre 51%, Flop 25.9%, Turn 79.5%)

      Hero shows 3:spade: 3:diamond:
      (Pre 49%, Flop 74.1%, Turn 20.5%)

      CO wins $19.16
  • 2 replies
    • Sinnology
      Sinnology
      Global
      Joined: 10.08.2009 Posts: 994
      Hee range when he calls your flop raise smells like AK,KQ, type hand or some combo draw, OESD+FD .
      I cant see him just calling with KK,44 those hands are probably 3betting us.
      Not quite sure about AK raise!
      I would make crying fold it on hes turn raise.
      7 complete hes draw and out of the rest we only beat AK.
      KK,44 ist still way ahead of us.

      Interested what Veriz has to say about it.

      cheers
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello EdVardenis,

      Well, the problem on turn is that according his line I really doubt that he is ever playing this way his AK unless he is really spewing away his money. Therefore the question is what kind of hands can we even beat here? Or do you have any information on the opponent?

      Practically K4/K3/K7 ain't that likely. But most of the sets beat us like 44/77(not that big part of his range)/56. The only hand which I might see we beat is something like A:hK. But against range which could be something like:

      Board: 4:spade: K:spade: 3:heart:  7:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    80.14%  80.14%   0.00% { KK, 44, 65s, AhKh, 65o }
      UTG+1  19.86%  19.86%   0.00% { 3d3s }

      We ain't doing that great. :( So for me it's unfortunately Bet/Fold unless I know the opponent is capable of spewing away money.

      Best regards.