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[NL2-NL10] NL4SH KAs n the BTN

    • BigAl123456
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 4,080
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.28)
      BB ($1.29)
      UTG ($4.30)
      UTG+1 ($4)
      CO ($2.74)
      Hero ($4)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: A:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.12, SB calls $0.10, fold

      FLOP ($0.28) K:heart: J:diamond: T:heart:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, SB calls $0.20

      TURN ($0.68) K:heart: J:diamond: T:heart: 6:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.42, SB raises to $1.96 (AI), Hero folds

      SB wins $1.45

      I would of gone broke to a Flop ChR, but I have read alot about Turn ChR being alot stronger so I decided to lay it down.
  • 2 replies
    • GrantJennings
      Joined: 31.07.2008 Posts: 232
      I'd say that that theorem is true for players of a certain type... against some players I'm instantly calling all in tptk anywhere in the hand. I suspect that many of the players at nl4 are this sort.

      Furthermore, pot odds argue for a call. You are getting ~2/1, and TPTK plus gutshot is shippable, imho.

      Finally, there are lots of draws that were 50% against you on the flop, that you're now ahead of on the turn after a blank falls. Sometimes villain plays his draws this way (Barry Greenstein claims he raises his draws on the turn instead of the flop because of the common knowledge that you cite, for example).
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello BigAl123456,

      You need ~34% equity here to make it break-even. Although against opponent range something like this:

      Board: K:heart: J:diamond: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    57.23%  55.59%   1.64% { JJ-TT, AQs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AhJh, 9h8h, AQo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      UTG+1  42.77%  41.13%   1.64% { AsKs }

      we are even easily getting it. Therefore shouldn't be even a problem if you plan to Call it vs his stack. But as well shouldn't be problem if you want to avoid the variance.

      Best regards.