[NL20-NL50] SH set facing reraise on the turn

    • gonepoker
      gonepoker
      Gold
      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 438
      Hey.
      These are stats I have one him (53 hands only):


      Looks like this player is passive pre flop and quite aggresive post flop so I would expect him to raise 67 on the flop so the turn Im probably against 89s or 34s OR maybe higher set. If my fold was correct should we fold middle set? Top set? Probably since he would still raise sets on the flop same logic applies so it's a fold?

      $20.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      CO: $27.34
      BTN: $18.10
      Hero (SB): $30.69
      BB: $22.23
      UTG: $28.11
      MP: $6.64

      Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero is SB with 2 :diamond: 2 :club:
      2 folds, CO calls $0.20, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.40

      Flop: ($2.00) 7 :diamond: 6 :heart: 2 :heart: (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BTN folds

      Turn: ($5.00) 5 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.00, CO raises to $9, Hero folds
  • 7 replies
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Even if you talk yourself into giving the villain credit for a made straight, you only need to call $5 into a $13 pot to see a 10 out river. Even without the highly likely river call down by the villain if you make your hand, you still have a correct call ($5 of $23 = 21.7%, your equity with 22 here vs 89 = 22.6%)

      Against a weird spewy villain I don't know how you talk yourself into thinking you cant ever be in front here. Villain could have flopped two pairs, be raising a pair and a nut flush draw or even nut flush + straight draw (A4s, A8s).

      I think your turn play is deciding if to just-call or shove over. Id want to call and shove a paired board river.
    • gonepoker
      gonepoker
      Gold
      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 438
      yesterday I've lost with 3 flopped sets I am not sure whats right and whats wrong thats why Im posting here.
    • gonepoker
      gonepoker
      Gold
      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 438
      I think you are right about calling I def have implied odds but still its a bottom set...
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      CALL TURN DUE ODDS!!!

      C/rai river if hit, c/f if you didn't hit.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello gonepoker,

      His limping range will very often even consist of SCs and not only PPs according his stats. Which means he may easily even have 2pairs/made straights and even against made straights we still have a lot of implied odds available against his min-raise. Therefore I'd still Call it and reevaluate it on river.

      Best regards.
    • lolofon
      lolofon
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 1,088
      hey guys, imho on T shoving is also a decent option, what do u think? He can have also stuff like 65s/75s here, o although those are only a few combos, our equity vs his range is very solid. If u are calling T, are u really ch/folding a blank R? If not, i don't see any advantage of calling and if yes, isn't it too weak?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by lolofon
      hey guys, imho on T shoving is also a decent option, what do u think? He can have also stuff like 65s/75s here, o although those are only a few combos, our equity vs his range is very solid. If u are calling T, are u really ch/folding a blank R? If not, i don't see any advantage of calling and if yes, isn't it too weak?
      Well, the case is that I doubt that kind of guy would overvalue his 2pairs in that kind of spot. Never-ever. As you see according his W$SD he has been winning a lot of showdowns. Obviously we don't have that much of stats on him that we really should look at that but at least gives some kind of overview. And I'd actually even consider folding.

      Board: 7:diamond: 6:heart: 2:heart:  5:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    73.46%  73.46%   0.00% { 77-55, 98s, 75s, 65s, 43s, 98o }
      UTG+1  26.54%  26.54%   0.00% { 2d2c }

      For that given reason.