[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH A9o

    • dannywratten
      dannywratten
      Gold
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      HoldemManager
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      villain is fairly tight over small sample, not sure what kind of hands he is donking turn with, but i think its almost never as a bluff, correct?
      river standard fold against a fairly unknown opponent?
      seems like his range mostly consists of made hands he donks for protection on the turn.
      is my thought process heading in the right direction here?

      Stacks:
      UTG ($4.19)
      UTG+1 ($9.79)
      CO ($13.47)
      Hero (BTN) ($11.08)
      SB ($10.74)
      BB ($10)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BTN A:heart: 9:spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: K:heart: 10:spade: 4:club: ($0.65, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.45, BB calls $0.45

      Turn: A:spade: ($1.55, 2 players)
      BB bets $0.99, Hero calls $0.99

      River: 6:diamond: ($3.53, 2 players)
      BB bets $2.25, $2.25 to Hero ($9.34)?
  • 2 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Greetings,

      On the river you are almost definitely behind villains value range, perhaps his weakest holding being an AQ type hand, but he can easily have 2 pair hands KT, AT that he wants to protect along with slowplayed TT, 44, and also KK, AK (which he'd often 3bet preflop).

      So the question is....is villain's bluff range wide enough to make the river call here; and I'd say almost never. Hands that make sense to bluff with on the turn often have enough equity vs your range to either check/call the turn or hope for a check/check i.e hands like KQ,KJ,TJ,TQ which also turn a gutter, but it's not impossible villain donks these. Also if villain does decide to turn a weaker hand into a bluff, such as any pocket pair it's possible he will check/raise rather than donk. Combined with the fact that this is not a good board to bluff on.....I agree you should fold the river.

      You could potentially fold the turn, although calling isn't ridiculous. You are still beat by villains pure value range, so you are really hoping he has some of the aforementioned semi-bluff hands and that he is shutting down on the river.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello dannywratten,

      Well the problem is that obviously his donking on turn can be as a bluff. But I doubt that he is going to continue with a lot of bluffs on river. Since the only hand we beat there is a bluff. Doubt that he is ever getting there with Kx. Even if he is betting then he is practically turning his hand into bluff. Not many worse hands will Call anyways.

      Therefore, I'd rather be inclined even to fold the river with your reads that he is rather tighter player and while nothing said about his bluff-stats/reads.

      As I understand you raise it? With raising you ain't gonna get called never by worse hands.

      Best regards.