[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH squeze with AQ, tight table

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,072
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($20)
      BB ($20.30)
      UTG ($48.72)
      UTG+1 ($25.77)
      CO ($44.06)
      BTN ($23.37)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: Q:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.80, fold, CO calls $0.80, fold, Hero raises to $3.20, fold, fold, CO calls $2.40

      FLOP ($7.40) 4:diamond: 3:spade: 7:heart:

      Hero checks, CO checks

      TURN ($7.40) 4:diamond: 3:spade: 7:heart: 6:heart:

      Hero checks, CO bets $3.60, Hero folds

      CO wins $7.03

      UTG: 21/17/4.3
      fold to cbet 50 (4)
      150 hands

      CO: 24/21/5
      fold to cbet 50
      fold to 3bet 57 (28)
      wtsd 20
      800 hands

      The table was tight, the loosest player was CO with his 24 vpip. So because the table was tight, I think UTG could have wide range. CO would have something like AJ, AQ, and pocket pairs so I could force them to fold their weak ranges. I don't want to call OOP against 2 opponents this hand.

      But my semibluff didn't work, and I don't cbet because CO has low fold to cbet and has some overpairs which he is not folding.
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I agree that co has there often pp, but I think he would also call just for set value and would either fold to your flop and turn bet, so I would prefer still c-betting and double barreling (especially if your image is tight). Also you can always catch scare card as J, K where he would likely fold worse than tp hands
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,072
      ok, he has often PP. So he is never folding 44,33, 77-JJ and is only folding 22, 55. 66 - dont know, maybe fold, maybe call once, because he is does not think I have hit so often. Ok, 66 he is folding to a scare card on turn. Yet he should fold AQ, AJs.

      He folds 37 hand comninations on flop or turn. And he is calling 42 hand combinations. So I am winnig ~50% (actually less, but its just rounded because we cannot know exactly) of the time with my cbet on flop. I have to invest at least 5 $ I think. So I need to win 5/(5+7.4) = 40% of the time. So, ok then.

      That was just my thinkings, I just wrote it there for myself, but I will not delete them, maybe someone even will argue with me :)

      Edit - but another question - if he is even having AJs, 22-66? And even AQ? I somehow don't think that he is having them too often. He has not good odds to call for set values small PP, and with AJs calling squeeze, hmm... not not the best option. With AQ, maybe, but sometimes he is 3beting it so again not high chance. So I put him very often on 77-JJ which of course he is not folding on flop.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Agree to you. He likely has pp that he isn´t going to fold on the flop. But he would likely fold them a lot of times on the turn that should make flop c-bet profitable. If you think player is calldown happy and/or your image is bad, then c/f it all the way is fine.