[NL20-NL50] [NL25] AA fold on K9K board vs TAG

    • conall88
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      should I be folding here longterm? what is he repping other than having pocket 9's or a K? I expect him to show AK here. is that an accurate assumption?

      villain is 23/17 with a 3bet of 11.9%

      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $25.48 (101.9 bb)
      Hero (MP): $47 (188 bb)
      CO: $10 (40 bb)
      BTN: $25 (100 bb)
      SB: $17.35 (69.4 bb)
      BB: $50.25 (201 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A A
      CO posts BB OOP, UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.94, CO folds, BTN raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.80, BTN calls $3.80

      Flop: ($14.20) K 9 K (2 players)
      Hero bets $6, BTN raises to $12, Hero folds

      Results: $26.20 pot ($1.27 rake)
      Final Board: K 9 K
      Hero mucked A A and lost (-$12.80 net)
      BTN mucked and won $24.93 ($12.13 net)
  • 2 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      imo you can never fold aces in 4-bet pot being 100bb deep, unless you have like 1000 hands and certain read against player.
      First reason: you have put in 51% of your stack, so that would have to give you very strong reason to fold at the first place
      Second: you have aces in 4-bet pot. Aces win generally 80%+ against random hands. If you take that his range is very strong, then even 83%

      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AA 83.05% 360,576,036 12,666,408
      5% 16.95% 68,531,988 12,666,408

      On that board aces is way ahead against 5%

      board: Kd9dKs
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AA 67.54% 121,515 5,694
      5% 32.46% 56,931 5,694

      and your reason to b/f is only to put him on certain hands that beat you as AK or 99. If I was decide to call, I´d likely also min-raise with QQ or JJ to force out worse hands and make smt like AQ to spazz out, so min-raise isn´t always nuts in 4-bet pots and you shouldn´t make herofolds based on that.
    • conall88
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      thanks Kaitz, I'l see you in a week or so with some more hands ;)