[NL2-NL10] flop a monster draw and fold

    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Party
      SB ($10)
      Hero ($10.15)
      UTG ($10)
      UTG+1 ($7.64)
      UTG+2 ($26.11)
      MP1 ($2.73)
      MP2 ($2.85)
      CO ($11.63)
      BTN ($19.40)

      Dealt to Hero 3:spade: 4:spade:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, fold, MP1 calls $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.20

      FLOP ($1.80) 2:spade: 5:spade: 8:club:

      SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $1.71, MP1 folds, CO raises to $3.80, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls $2.09

      TURN ($9.40) 2:spade: 5:spade: 8:club: 6:diamond:

      UTG+1 checks, CO bets $3.90, UTG+1 calls $3.54 (AI)

      RIVER ($16.48) 2:spade: 5:spade: 8:club: 6:diamond: 7:spade:

      CO shows 5:club: 5:diamond:
      (Pre 18%, Flop 87.9%, Turn 77.3%)

      UTG+1 shows 7:club: 7:diamond:
      (Pre 82%, Flop 12.1%, Turn 22.7%)

      UTG+1 wins $15.66

      i hade the best possible flop with my hand but the action was very high ...
      and i decide that i should not ship it for a draw!

      i dont know i was very confused with this hand!!! maybe i should just call maybe i should just ship it maybe i could fold i have no clue :) !

      worse senario now that i see the equilab is that i am fliping what ever my opponent has
  • 5 replies
    • sp00nman
      sp00nman
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2009 Posts: 92
      You flopped a big one.

      I would have probably shipped it. We should be deciding what type of flop you would go crazy for before entering the pot, and I think that that was the right flop to do it.

      You said you were flipping, but what does equilab say when its multiway like this? I think we have tons of equity to go broke here. Not sure, too lazy to run equilab.
    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      i know shipping it is not wronge our odds are very good we are getting 2:1 and thats what we need for flush and OESD!

      what i dont know is if its wronge to fold!
    • jdnismo
      jdnismo
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.07.2010 Posts: 193
      Imo ship it on the flop because if UTG+1 is cbetting an overpair which is likely due to his large bet size, it's tough for him to call a raise and then a shove, so you have good fold equity vs. him. CO looks strong when he is raising, I think his range is mostly sets with overpairs and monster draws, and you have enough equity vs. his range to ship it in. Even if you shove and UTG+1 calls, your equity looks like this:


      Board: 2:spade: 5:spade: 8:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+1  32.47%  32.26%   0.21% { 77+, 55, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs }
      CO     24.62%  24.41%   0.21% { JJ-88, 55, 22, A8s, KJs+, QJs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As7s, As6s }
      BB     42.91%  42.91%   0.00% { 4s3s }


      If UTG folds, you might have something like this:


      Board: 2:spade: 5:spade: 8:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     48.71%  48.71%   0.00% { JJ-88, 55, 22, A8s, KJs+, QJs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As7s, As6s }
      BB     51.29%  51.29%   0.00% { 4s3s }


      Even if you're only up against sets:


      Board: 2:spade: 5:spade: 8:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     58.22%  58.22%   0.00% { 88, 55, 22 }
      BB     41.78%  41.78%   0.00% { 4s3s }


      So you have a huge amount of equity on that flop.
    • minibiff
      minibiff
      Gold
      Joined: 12.09.2010 Posts: 3,757
      I snap call here :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello w4terman,

      Well, first of all I'd start with donking with our hand. We might even have fold equity there. But about the play. If we consider the UTG be pretty fishy and most likely calling also with his almost pot size betting hand. Then I'd Call there and invite him into the pot to get even better pot equity. Plus of course if he ships then we are getting very good equity. We rather would like to have both opponents in the pot. ;) Since if we are getting only CO then we would need ~43% equity. But with the other guy in the pot we would need ~34% equity for break-even. For both cases:

      Against 2 opponents, we are doing profitable.

      Board: 2:spade: 5:spade: 8:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+1   5.55%   5.55%   0.00% { 99+ }
      CO     53.96%  53.96%   0.00% { 88, 55, 22 }
      BB     40.49%  40.49%   0.00% { 4s3s }


      Against 1 opponent:

      Board: 2:spade: 5:spade: 8:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     58.22%  58.22%   0.00% { 88, 55, 22 }
      BB     41.78%  41.78%   0.00% { 4s3s }

      We practically are near break-even. Since it's very likely according his line that he has a set there. Therefore for conclusion I'd just Call and invite the loose opponent to hop in.

      Best regards.