[NL2-NL10] Weird Spot for Top Set

    • sp00nman
      Joined: 14.01.2009 Posts: 92
      BU is 23/7/3 169 hands
      MP3 is an unknown.

      I was hoping to check/raise the flop but then both players checked behind. Uncharacteristically for BU! I narrowed his range down to maybe SCs, AK/AQ/AJ, and not on 99+ type of hands since he would have Cbet the flop with any overpair. I lead out on turn and was expecting BU to flat me if he has some kind of a draw. What happened on the turn was rather unexpected, the unknown MP3 player raised and BU re-raised all in. Seems like everybody was waiting for each other to bet so they can spring their own traps. Ugly spot.

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8, 8.
      MP1 folds, Hero calls $0.05, MP3 raises to $0.10, CO folds, BU raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.20.

      Flop: ($0.97) 8, 4, 5 (3 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 checks, BU checks.

      Turn: ($0.97) 2 (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.65, MP3 raises to $1.60, BU raises to $12.53(All-In), Hero ?( ?( ?(
  • 4 replies
    • rudders93
      Joined: 19.06.2011 Posts: 93
      I think you would have been correct in getting AI.

      What kind of hands would have had you beat on the turn? 67,A3,63 and that's it. Neither of those hands are likely to be held by the BU as he isn't crazily loose and he did 3bet you preflop. I think, assuming he doesn't have anything really unusual with his preflop 3bets you could assume he's on a strong range, like JJ+, AK, maybe AQs. You have that entire range beat (infact, 90% equity).

      My poker maths isn't flash, but I think that the pot odds you were getting to call (assuming MP3 doesn't call the AI, which he'd probably do, but that would just improve your odds) would be: $4.63 / $12.56 so you would need ~37% equity to justify a call (with the $4.63 being what remained of your stack which you could invest and the $11.16 being the amount of the pot you could win ($5.33 of your entire stack, 5.33 of the BU, and the $1.90 invested by MP3)).

      If you add in the worst case scenario of the reraise (which I think would be a range consisting of just 44,55,22,76,A3) as your opponents range you still have 39.08% equity so you'd have enough equity to call. That is the absolute worst case scenario and is hugely unlikely. Highly doubt anyone but a maniac would reraise preflop with those kind of hands. Calling for set value maybe, but a reraise almost definitely not. Also, as MP3 would likely have also called the push (he's more or less pot committed on the turn with his reraise) you would only need 33% equity ($4.63/$14.03=0.33)

      I think a flush draw would have been unlikely. A heart draw is consistent with the flop (ie: then passively playing to try cheaply see the turn), but then the crazy betting on the turn just would not make sense for a diamond or heart flush draw.

      Overall, I would have played like this:
      Preflop = Raise to $0.20 and then call the reraise if it's by a player who 3bets loose, all for set value. If I miss the set on the flop, I'd be out right there (unless it was very very cheap to see next card). Of course, if it's a perfect cbet flop with 2 low cards and a high card all rainbow, then I'd lead out with a cbet. But really this depends on whether the opponent folds enough because this cbet would be a semi-bluff, and remember bluffs ONLY work when your opponent folds (unless you hit an 8 on the turn. But that only happens ~8% of the time)

      If I had called the reraise then:

      Flop = Raise to ~$0.75 to extract value from your hand and to protect from a possible straight and flush draw. I think overcards and lower sets would call you and you'd get value from that.

      If raise was called, Turn = again raise 3/4 pot and aim to get all in ASAP!
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Get it in there! That board is annoying but not massively so. Like Rudders said, that turn didn't help many straight draws. Even if a villain is on a slowplay with the 67 you still have decent equity to find out, and BU smells like overplayed aces or some 20% equity flush draw to the AdKd or AhKh.
    • sp00nman
      Joined: 14.01.2009 Posts: 92
      Thank you for your replies =)

      I managed to get it in there thinking the same line as yours. MP3 flipped over 44, and BU flipped 63. Totally unexpected! River bricked but I feel so much better now that people agreed with me. :D :D :D
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello sp00nman,

      Well, the problem is that we can't really fold here that easily. While BU may have even worse sets which he is shipping like this. Also we are never-ever dead here. We still have got some outs. If we get it 3way all-in then our equity will be pretty good and for that reason I don't even mind. Plus obviously could bet a bit bigger on turn as well. :)

      Although I don't understand why don't you get the flop? Start protecting your hand right there rather than Check and see everyone Checking behind. ;)

      Best regards.