[NL2-NL10] [NL2 FR BSS] KK Overpair, turn play

    • Elertar
      Elertar
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 164
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($0.82)
      BB ($4.60)
      UTG ($2)
      UTG+1 ($1.73)
      UTG+2 ($2)
      Hero ($2.58)
      CO ($1.64)
      BTN ($2.84)

      Dealt to Hero K:diamond: K:club:

      UTG calls $0.02, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.10, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.08, UTG calls $0.08

      FLOP ($0.31) J:club: 3:heart: 8:diamond:

      BB checks, UTG bets $0.14, Hero raises to $0.50, BB folds, UTG calls $0.36

      TURN ($1.31) J:club: 3:heart: 8:diamond: T:club:

      UTG checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($1.31) J:club: 3:heart: 8:diamond: T:club: Q:club:

      UTG checks, Hero checks

      UTG shows Q:heart: J:spade:
      (Pre 15%, Flop 20.0%, Turn 20.5%)

      Hero shows K:diamond: K:club:
      (Pre 85%, Flop 80.0%, Turn 79.5%)

      UTG wins $1.25


      UTG is 20/4/1.2 over 433 hands.

      Can we consider ourselves ahead on the turn even after the flop donk?
  • 4 replies
    • Bogdan1190
      Bogdan1190
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2009 Posts: 406
      You have KK what are you afraid of ? the single hand of his range that beats you ? AA ?

      I don't know about the flop raise if it is ok i would of call the flop and let him bet the turn and then raise to get more money in the pot.

      The flop is great for you he could have a Jx type of hand.

      After your raise on the flop he continues to play pasively so you are ahead on the turn as well.

      Why did you check the turn ?
    • dannyf85
      dannyf85
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.09.2009 Posts: 65
      With stats of 20/4 id say hes limp calling a pretty wide range preflop such as small PP's, suited A hands and broadways. His donkbet of under half pot seems pretty weak but after he calls your raise I'd say hes probebly on a top pair type hand JT, QJ, KJ, AJ,maybe a set 33 or 88 maybe even 2 pair with J8 I wouldnt expect JJ or overpair as he does seem capable of raising a hand pre.

      If we put this into equilater we can see that on the flop we get the following:

      Board: J:club: 3:heart: 8:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    64.23%  64.23%   0.00% { KdKc }
      MP3    35.77%  35.77%   0.00% { 88, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, J8s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, J8o }


      The Tc on the turn does decrease the equity a little but not a great deal

      Board: J:club: 3:heart: 8:diamond:  T:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    54.55%  54.55%   0.00% { KdKc }
      MP3    45.45%  45.45%   0.00% { 88, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, J8s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, J8o }

      As you can see where still ahead I would definatly fire the turn for about 2/3 pot allowing a free showdown if the A, Q or J hits and he checks to us. If he raises the turn I would be inclined to lay it down
    • Elertar
      Elertar
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 164
      Thank you for your replies! Very complete analysis, dannyf85.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Elertar,

      Well, I don't really understand the idea of raising the flop and then turning your hand into nothing. If you are raising the flop then it means you are also shipping the turn for value. No way we are going to Check behind there.

      But rather the question is if we even should play our hand that aggressively. We are practically making a lot worse to fold and at the same time isolate ourselves against better hands. Rather Call and play it passively and reevaluate further actions.

      Best regards.