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[NL2-NL10] [NL2 FR BSS] AA on drawy flop vs raise cbet

    • Elertar
      Joined: 11.08.2011 Posts: 164
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.28)
      BB ($2)
      Hero ($3.30)
      UTG+1 ($0.71)
      UTG+2 ($0.53)
      MP1 ($0.41)
      CO ($1.74)
      BTN ($3.61)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: A:diamond:

      Hero raises to $0.08, UTG+1 calls $0.08, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.19) 9:heart: 3:heart: Q:heart:

      Hero bets $0.14, UTG+1 raises to $0.63 (AI), Hero calls $0.49

      TURN ($1.45) 9:heart: 3:heart: Q:heart: 4:diamond:

      RIVER ($1.45) 9:heart: 3:heart: Q:heart: 4:diamond: 6:diamond:

      Hero shows A:club: A:diamond:
      (Pre 83%, Flop 26.8%, Turn 18.2%)

      UTG+1 shows 3:spade: Q:spade:
      (Pre 17%, Flop 73.2%, Turn 81.8%)

      UTG+1 wins $1.38

      UTG+1 is 86/52/2.4 over 30 hands.

      I guess we can't call with such a drawy board if we don't know if the villain can bluff, right?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Elertar,

      You need only ~34% equity here to make it break-even with rake included. Although against something like:

      Board: Q:heart: 3:heart: 9:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    57.24%  55.48%   1.76% { AdAc }
      UTG+1  42.76%  41.00%   1.76% { 99, 33, AQs, KQs, Q9s+, AQo, KQo, Q9o+, JhTc }

      We are getting pretty decent equity. I am going broke here. :)

      Best regards.