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[NL20-NL50] A6s 4bet utg

    • CheckBop
      Joined: 20.11.2010 Posts: 313
      ***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
      $25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, September 19, 06:48:27 ET 2011
      Table Annagerman (Real Money)
      Seat 3 is the button
      Seat 1: Hero ( $36.16 USD ) -
      Seat 2: Player2 ( $28.12 USD ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 25, 3B: 17, AF: 1.3, Hands: 53
      Seat 3: Player3 ( $29.43 USD ) - VPIP: 9, PFR: 4, 3B: 9, AF: Infinity, Hands: 23
      Seat 4: Player4 ( $25.00 USD ) - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 1.3, Hands: 93
      Seat 6: Player6 ( $30.42 USD ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 23
      Player4 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
      Player6 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
      ** Dealing down cards **
      Dealt to Hero [ Ac 6c ]
      Hero raises [$0.75 USD]
      Player2 raises [$2.20 USD]
      Player3 folds
      Player4 folds
      Player6 folds
      Hero raises [$5.25 USD]
      Player2 calls [$3.80 USD]
      ** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 8d, As ] (Pot= $12.35)
      Hero bets [$6.00 USD]
      Player2 calls [$6.00 USD]
      ** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ] (Pot= $24.35)
      Hero bets [$24.16 USD]
      Player2 calls [$16.12 USD]

      Villain has 3bet us twice previous to this and we have folded within the last few hands. (Note 3bet:17%). Decide to take this spot and 4bet as bluff. Is the 4bet sizing okay.

      When he calls Im not too sure of his range, I put him on JJ-TT and maybe 99 that didn't want to shove but called fairly loosely to set mine. Also thinking vaguely about AK/AQs here but really don't know if he plays these this way.

      Vs this range on the flop we are way behind vs. 10combos and way ahead vs. 12-18combos.

      The problem is we're out of position, if we bet, we can't expect a worse hand to call or better hand to fold. However, when checking a dilemma arises around an unknown quantity which is his bluffing frequency. For case lets assume he never turns his pocket pairs into a bluff here. Therefore if we check we can't check/call as only better hands are betting.

      Therefore check/fold flop?

      Not so. Given the above assumption and range analysis a bet is profitable to take down the money in the pot. If we give him 12 (JJ, TT) combos of worse hands which are folding and 10 combos of better hands are calling a half pot size bet stands to make a profit of roughly $3.82 in a vacuum. Possibly more if we take out some combos of AK out of his range assume he can shove them preflop sometimes

      Therefore we bet to capitalize on the dead money.

      Okay, while writing about this hand I have thought about some different "Think outside the box" lines which require us to change our assumptions of villain. Assume villain can turn his pocket pairs into a bluff which is reasonable to collect the dead money with a similar though process to above. Hero considers a check/raise to turn his hand into a bluff?

      Lets assume villain bets $8 with his entire range when checked to, and hero raises to $20. He definitely folds JJ-TT (12 combos), assume he shoves with AQ/AK (10 combos), when he folds we win $20.35, when he shoves we lose $20 :

      ((12/22)*$20.35) - ((10/22)*$20)= $11.09 - $9.08 = +$2.01

      Okay so its theoretically +ev but not optimal compared to betting out. But put yourself in villains shoes, how do you respond to a check/raise on this board with AQ or even AK? We represent AA pretty strongly. If we start to give credit for villain to fold AQ or sometimes even AK added to the fact that some of the time AK will ship it pre-flop we end up folding out large proportions of his range and this could become the optimal line.

      Well that turned into an essay but thought of most of it while righting. Sorry judges!

      As played and given the above initial assumptions (villain never calls flop with worst hand) I hate my turn play. I guess the turn should just be a check/fold despite picking up a FD.

  • 2 replies
    • Bierbaer
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      Please convert hands before posting.

      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1450890
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (UTG): $36.16
      CO: $28.12 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 25, 3B: 17, AF: 1.3, Hands: 53
      BTN: $29.43 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 4, 3B: 9, AF: Infinity, Hands: 23
      SB: $25.00 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 1.3, Hands: 93
      BB: $30.42 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 23

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A :club: 6 :club:
      Hero raises to $0.75, CO raises to $2.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $3.80

      Flop: ($12.35) 5 :club: 8 :diamond: A :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.00, CO calls $6

      Turn: ($24.35) 3 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $24.16, CO calls $16.12 all in

      The first suggestion I have is to leave this table ;) .
      There is no fish and the loose-aggro reg is to your immediate left - this is basically the worst constellation of opponents you can find.

      As for the hand:
      I'd openfold A6s given that there's no fish in the blinds and a loose-aggressive player to your left.
      It is much easier to counter his aggression by tightening up your openraising-range and loosening your value-4bettingrange than by opening looser and subsequently 4betbluffing.

      However, it is of course possible to do that but you probably need very balanced ranges to make your style profitable overall.

      Once he calls the 4bet I agree that his range is usually strong. He might call as loose as TT+,AJ+ because he suspects you're 4bet-bluffing, but ofc it's hard to tell how strong his range is exactly.

      On the flop I don't think either betting or checkraising accomplish anything.
      It's a wa/wb situation - either he has us crushed with a better Ax, or he has a PP and is drawing to two outs.
      So It's a c/f or c/c spot. Which option you choose depends on your assumptions, but imo it's a c/f because I expect him to check back with most PPs.

      Notice that even though we plan on c/folding it's not like we're giving up 100% of the time - quite the opposite, we're defining his range and once he checks back we can extract value (keep in mind that he can check back AJ and AQ though, so don't valuetown yourself...).
    • CheckBop
      Joined: 20.11.2010 Posts: 313
      Thanks for a great response! Sorry For the formatting I'm just geting used to HEM.

      @Leaving the table, this was my last hand, the "sit out next BB" box had been checked. I'm a table selection nit! :tongue:

      Thanks again,