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[NL2-NL10] quiz:Suited Connectors on the Flop JQs

    • nipbourne
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (10 handed)

      Stacks & Stats
      BB ($125.43)
      SB ($123.50)
      BU ($108)
      CO ($143.65)
      MP3 (139.00)
      MP2 ($97.50)
      MP1 ($145.50)
      UTG+2 ($20.00)
      UTG+1 ($155.50) (25/20/3.1/40/635) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSwsF/Hands]
      UTG ($97.00)

      Preflop: Hero is BU with Qh , Jh
      1 fold , UTG+1 raises $4.00, 5 folds, Hero calls 4$, SB folds, BB calls 4$

      Flop: ($11,50) 9c, Th, Js (3 players)
      BB checks, UTG+1 bets $10.00, Hero….

      What do you do?

      raise / call

      I chose to call,because I thought I will only be called with 99+/KQ/TJs/AJ?

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 69.207% 65.865% 6.683% 27.452% 99+, AJs, KQs, JTs, AJo, KQo
      Player 2: 30.793% 27.452% 6.683% 65.865% QhJh

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 39.874% 34.814% 10.513% 54.673% 99+, AJs, KQs, JTs, AJo, KQo
      Player 2: 20.851% 16.646% 8.803% 74.551% QhJh
      Player 3: 39.274% 34.405% 10.129% 55.465% 99+, AJs, KQs, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KQo
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello nipbourne,

      Well, lets take a look.

      a) fold - is out of question here, our hand is way too strong to do that
      b) call - this option could be doable, but while his range is going to consist of something like AK/AQ hands as well and there can be a lot of cards which we don't want to see. Like if a K comes then it could give him better straight and so on. For that given reason it's pretty close. For example, if we add against his range, even some stronger range which I'd expect him to CBet:

      Board: 9:club: T:heart: J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+1  47.13%  42.76%   4.38% { QhJh }
      UTG+2  52.87%  48.49%   4.38% { 99+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo }

      We still getting pretty decent equity. Although according his WTSwsF is 40 which means that he is rather picky with going to showdown and not even going a lot. Therefore I do expect him to be able to to fold hands like KK/AA/AJ/AQ/AK/KJ even. So pretty wide range, therefore the plan c) Raise/Call could work perfectly here with the overall equity even.

      It's not the case that we only trying to have overall equity against him, but at the same time we are taking a look at the hands which he is going to fold and this kind of range is going to be pretty wide as I described earlier.

      But of course Calling ain't wrong here, if you rather take the passive line then why not. :)

      Best regards.