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[NL20-NL50] FR25 - implied odds

    • chocular77
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Known players:

      0,15/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.102 by

      Preflop: Hero is BU with T:diamond: , 9:diamond:
      UTG folds, UTG1 raises to $1,00, UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $1,00, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $1,00, CO folds, Hero calls $1,00, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($4,40) Q:heart: , 8:diamond: , 2:diamond: (4 players)
      UTG1 bets $2, MP1 calls $2,00, MP3 folds, Hero calls $2,00.

      Turn: ($10,40) A:heart: (3 players)
      UTG1 checks, MP1 bets $6,65, Hero folds, UTG1 calls $6,65.

      I have the PFAggressor after me and the bet from MP1 is big.
      I don't know how my implied and expressed odds look like so i folded.
  • 2 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      raising flop seems so strong and I think players would fold overpairs and Qx against 8$ raise, so with your equity I´d likely prefer that play.
      On the turn you should call, since for example against AQ you have 7+3 outs (Ad, Qd would give him boat)+ UTG1 might also easily go there for pot control.
      I doubt he would c/f river two pair if you bet half the pot.

      Some math:

      you have 21% equity against AQ

      board: Qh8d2dAh
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      Td9d 20.96% 83 0
      AQ 79.04% 313 0
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      You need to call 6.65$, getting direct odds: 17.05:6.65, 2.56:1, which means you should have 28% equity.
      4:1 is 20% equity. (17.05+x): 6.65= 4; x= 9,55$.
      So basically you have to get extra 10$ on the river if you hit your hand to make turn call profitable. Since both MP1 and you are deep+ you´re ip I think you get implied odds to make turn call profitable.