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[NL20-NL50] NL25 AA - SB v BU

    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Known players:

      0.1/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.104 by

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:heart: , A:spade:
      6 folds, BU raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, BB folds, BU raises to $5.25, Hero raises to $12.00, BU folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $10.75

      I thought a while about what to do with this one. BU opens 34% of his range and cbets 87% of that - but cbet turn is 0% (after 700 hands!) so flatting and hoping to get good value OOP is questionable.

      The villain's reaction to 3bet in this position to that point was 50% fold 50% raise - making a 3bet obvious.

      The 4bet is a curious one and here, even though it might seem like a results-oriented thing to say, I think flatting, check-call, bet would be the best line. The villain appears likely to often re-resteal and this line would allow him to donate the maximum value (although we risk letting the villain catch and crack us).

      Instead I chose to 5bet, which polarized his continuation range from around 17% down to KK, perhaps AKs and QQ.

      I am going to assume the villain cbets $7 100% in the 3bet $10.75 pot, will crack my aces one time in five, come all-in with the worst hand one more time in 5 and fold to my turn bet the remaining 60% of the time.

      20% lose $25
      20% win $25
      60% win $12.50

      average win $7.50

      vs 98% win $5.75 (villain folds to 5bet)
      2% win $20 (villain comes all-in with a weaker hand, hero equity averaged at 80%)

      average win $6.04

      Is this a reasonable analysis?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      You should really win more than 20% postflop his stack, so I think that number should easily be 50%
      He isn´t bluffing that spot too often and if he has QQ/KK and flop comes 446 then he would not really b/f that spot.
      Personally I´d not 5-bet that spot, but rather either shove or flat. (you can also consider clicking it back offering him very good pot odds, but not sure what other hands would you do that)
      If I´d flat his 4-bet pf I´d c/rai on any board