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Shot taking in MT SNGs

    • L3ST
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 413
      I withdrew most of my Stars BR and left about 10$ in it to spew around. Got down to .30$, then started grinding .10$ 360 man. Ran it up to 18$. Now I have good BR for .10$ SNGs, but thinking about taking shots to .50$ 90 man.

      When should I take shots? Should 100bi for current limit + 20 buyins for next limit be enough?
  • 3 replies
    • conall88
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      70BI for current limit is fine. If you are gonna take shots and move down if it fails, I would stick to 30-35BI for next limit, and then have a 5BI dropdown zone.
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      There is a huge disparity between the level of risk associated with commonly recommended bankrolls for MTTs and other forms of poker. Do all serious MTT players accept a high probability (say, 50%) that their bankrolls get cut by a factor of 2, or 10, while STT or cash game players require this to happen at most 10% of the time? I don't think MTT players are so different. MTT players tend to have a lower amount of experience, and many have not seen how bad variance gets. The good players who have seen the down side of variance in the first few thousand tournaments usually assume tournaments are unbeatable and quit.

      Look at the Sharkscope graphs of the top grinders in MTT SNGs, the ones making the most money at each stake level. These players are selected to have unusually high ROIs (while most people asking about bankroll management have not established a high ROI over a large sample) and yet these top players have regular 50+ buy-in downswings and occasional 100+ buy-in downswings.

      If growing your bankroll is your main concern, you shouldn't take a shot unless you have at least half of the bankroll you would like to have to play at the higher level. Of course, the bankroll you need depends on your win rate, and you don't know your win rate or even that you are a winning player at the higher stake, but you should assume that your win rate goes down or at best stays the same when you move up. If you think you need 100 buy-ins to be comfortable at your current level, then you should not take shots at the next level unless you have at least 50 buy-ins at the next level, regardless of how you set the stop-loss. It's not enough to be willing to move down rapidly in case you lose at the higher level.
    • DonBartos
      Joined: 19.08.2008 Posts: 7,626

      I think for the 360man $10c SNGs $18 is indeed a good bankroll. It depends on your ROI, though. 180mans have huge variance and 360mans will tend to have even bigger variance. But, since your ROI should be a good amount higher than at 180mans, since these start at $2.50, 180bi will most likely be enough.

      For taking shots, you want to pick a bankroll that you wanna have left, after your shot. Let's say you want $20 left, which will be a fine bankroll for 10c. Then you need to decide how many tourneys you want to shot. If you can just shot 10 games, then you need $25. If you want to wait untill you can shot 20 games, then $30 is enough.

      Then after your first shot you cant just stay at the $50c level untill your bankroll drops below $20.