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[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH - TT vs 3bet from short stack

    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($12.72)
      BB ($40.46)
      UTG ($10)
      UTG+1 ($10.50)
      Hero ($10.41)
      BTN ($2.85)

      Dealt to Hero T:heart: T:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN raises to $1.20, fold, fold, Hero 4bets ?(

      He had tight stats, but I don't remember his stats at the time.

      I have to put $2.45 for a $1.75 pot. If I assume he calls wth his whole 3bet range, that means I have to have way more than 50% equity?

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 46.892% 46.62% 00.27% 546074664 3133902.00 { JJ+, 99-77, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
      Hand 1: 53.108% 52.84% 00.27% 618873468 3133902.00 { TT }

      So it's EV- to 4bet?
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Tosh5457,

      But well, you were saying that he had tight stats. Although you are still putting him a range of 9-10%? I really doubt that. :P Would be great to hear what kind of stats. If he had something near SSS stats then I'd rather fold the hand, doubt we are getting 42% equity against that kind of range which is needed.

      Best regards.
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Tosh5457,

      But well, you were saying that he had tight stats. Although you are still putting him a range of 9-10%? I really doubt that. :P Would be great to hear what kind of stats. If he had something near SSS stats then I'd rather fold the hand, doubt we are getting 42% equity against that kind of range which is needed.

      Best regards.
      The problem is that HE doesn't show the stats I had at the time of the hand... I had few hands at the time. In fact writing the stats here is useless most of the time I think, because when the hand occurred we didn't have the stats we post here.

      Hmm but how do we only need 42% equity? How do you do that calculation?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Pot is (with his all-in) = $3,40 ($0,40 + $0,15 (blinds) + $2,85 (opp. stack))
      For us to Call = $2,45

      Equity = $2,45/($3,4+$2,45) = ~42% equity which includes rake.
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Originally posted by veriz
      Pot is (with his all-in) = $3,40 ($0,40 + $0,15 (blinds) + $2,85 (opp. stack))
      For us to Call = $2,45

      Equity = $2,45/($3,4+$2,45) = ~42% equity which includes rake.
      Ah ok thanks :)
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Originally posted by veriz
      Pot is (with his all-in) = $3,40 ($0,40 + $0,15 (blinds) + $2,85 (opp. stack))
      For us to Call = $2,45

      Equity = $2,45/($3,4+$2,45) = ~42% equity which includes rake.
      Hmm but you're assuming we're the ones who're gonna call, but we're gonna 4bet. It's like betting pot has to result 50% of the times to be EV+, but a call against a pot bet only has to win the hand 33% of the time to be EV+.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      No, I assume that the guy is going broke anyways with his stack. :P