[NL2-NL10] Equity

    • Bogdan1190
      Joined: 29.04.2009 Posts: 406
      Known players:

      0,01/0,02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.105 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:heart: , Q:heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0,08, 3 folds, SB calls $0,07, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0,18) T:diamond: , 3:heart: , 3:diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0,16, SB raises to $0,69 (All-In), Hero calls $0,53.

      Turn: ($1,56) 9:heart:
      River: ($1,56) 9:spade: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $1,56

      if i calculated correctly i need around 33% equity to call flop.

      i know he is a loose guy and i put him on a pessimistic range of 6% (TT+,AJs+,KJs+,T9s,98s,AKo,AJo)

      against this range i have 40% equity.

      even if i put him on TT+ AJ+ KJs+ i still have equity to call.

      Is my calculations right ? did i made a good decision to call the flop ?

      if he weren't all in do i have to add the remaining of his stack to the pot in my equity callculations? ( the excel sheet from veriz )
  • 4 replies
    • cyclist52
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 69
      The equity you need is:
      ..... (the extra $0.53 you will put in) / ($1.56 total pot)
      or about 33-34% as you said.

      The real question is do you still put him on that same range post flop?

      You only have 14 hands on him so stats aren't definitive but it certainly appears that he likes to see the flop before committing money :-) and with a VPIP of 64 he could have almost anything preflop.

      Unless you have seen him bluffing at lots of flops which doesn't seem likely with an AF of 1 you probably need to narrow his range to something that at least hit something if even only the flush draw for a semi bluff.

      That something is probably more like:
      TT, 33, AT,KT,QT,JT ,A3,K3, Ad2d+, 5d4d+

      If we assume the above range your equity is approx 20.3% even adding Kd2d+ and Qd2d+ your equity is still <30%

      Since he is all in you won't get more into the pot so fold.

      PS: Part of beginner course homework is to reply in the hand evaluation forum so take this reply with that warning in mind.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Bogdan1190,

      Yes, your equity calculation is correct. Although you can't put him on that wide range. I'd be really inclined to CBet a bit less ~$0,10 while he is a shorty do a great job and most likely just fold to his shove.

      Best regards.
    • Bogdan1190
      Joined: 29.04.2009 Posts: 406
      6% is a wide range ? Im playing NL2 so are a lot of bad players here and against TT+ AJ+ KJs+ still is around 33% so a close call would be ok against that range.

      Why my interpretation of his range is not correct ?

      I guess we can exclude KK AA AKs AKo he probably raise pre-flop we could add any hand with a 3 in it since he is a loose guy and against other broadways im ahead.

      so what information do you take in cosideration when you asses someone's range ?

      i don't think that it matters but before i called i put him on a broadway hand and at the showdown he had KJo... i suppose that in that moment i guessed corectley his type of hand...
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      The case is that you are taking everyone as very aggressive player. :) Why should he shove here with just some overcards? While he is just a loose-passive player. Those kind of player rather hope to get a hand. If they had any kind of broadway hand why ain't they getting it in preflop then?