[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR A2s 26.09

    • UnknownJoseph
      Joined: 22.04.2010 Posts: 5,748
      Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP: $10.00
      MP+1: $10.77
      LP: $26.21
      CO: $15.19
      Hero (BTN): $11.00
      SB: $10.00
      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $10.15
      UTG+1: $10.25

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 2:diamond: A:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, SB calls $0.15, fold

      Flop: ($0.70, 3 players) 8:diamond: 5:club: 5:diamond:
      SB checks, CO bets $0.52, Hero calls $0.52, fold

      Turn: ($1.74, 2 players) 4:diamond:
      CO bets $0.87, Hero raises to $4.00, CO calls $3.13

      River: ($9.74, 2 players) Q:club:
      CO bets $7.30, Hero calls $6.28

      CO shows Q:spade: Q:diamond: (Full House, Queens full of Fives) (Pre 68%, Flop 59%, Turn 9%)
      Hero shows 2:diamond: A:diamond: (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 32%, Flop 41%, Turn 91%)
      CO wins $21.19

      CO player:
      +note 2xbb CO=88
      Preflop: I decided to call because of steal %.
      Flop & Turn: I think that it was standard play.
      River: Just unlucky?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello BGawli,

      Well, obviously your play is fine till river. There it becomes more complicated while he is never-ever shipping there with strong made hand. Therefore the question is if he is doing that with flushes? Most likely could be even possible, for that given reason I guess it's gonna be hard for us to fold the hand.

      Although 88/44 are also very likely and even 55 which would definitely play the same way and might even be QQ while his stats don't seem to be very good:

      Board: 8:diamond: 5:club: 5:diamond:  4:diamond:  Q:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    61.11%  61.11%   0.00% { QQ, 88, 55-44, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 7d6d }
      UTG+1  38.89%  38.89%   0.00% { Ad2d }

      We need in this case ~29% equity. Which means of course if we expect the opponent to raise with such hands? If we remove couple of flush type of hands then it's near break-even Call. So for that reason it's kinda close I'd say.

      Best regards.