Some doubts about preflop chances

    • slipkn6t
      slipkn6t
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.06.2011 Posts: 5,582
      Hi
      As far as I know:
      1. There are 52 cards in poker and 52x51=2652 starting hands in texas holdem.
      2. 6 out of 2652 hands are AA. Which is 1 out of 442 or .002262443438914 %
      Now I have ~800 hands played according to that statistics thing in partypoker room. And I've had that AA starting hand like 10 times.
      How come?
  • 4 replies
    • slipkn6t
      slipkn6t
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.06.2011 Posts: 5,582
      AKs is even more rare, but I saw it a few times, too.
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      Originally posted by slipkn6t
      Hi
      As far as I know:
      1. There are 52 cards in poker and 52x52=2704 starting hands in texas holdem.
      2. 6 out of 2704 hands are AA. Which is 1 out of ~451 or .0022189349112426 %
      Now I have ~800 hands played according to that statistics thing in partypoker room. And I've had that AA starting hand like 10 times.
      How come?
      i) There are 52x51/2 = 1326 starting hands (remember the order doesn't matter).
      ii) 6/1326 = 0.0045 = 0.45%, or 1 in 221.
      iii) In 800 hands you should get AA on about 3 or 4 times. Getting it 10 times means you're a lucky boy, but it's not freakishly unusual. If you get AA 10 000 times in 800 000 hands, you can start to think it's rigged, but don't tell anyone, because then you're a very lucky boy indeed.
    • slipkn6t
      slipkn6t
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.06.2011 Posts: 5,582
      52x51/2 = 1326 starting hands (remember the order doesn't matter )
      that makes sense, thank you!
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      i knew having a grumpy maths professor around here was good for something :f_love: thanks jb! :heart:

      hope that clarifies things slipkn6t. 800 hands isn't a real sample yet. :)

      if you've got more questions, pls ask away! we are all learning here and i believe jbpatzer doesnt have enough to do. ^^

      smiles,
      wendy