[NL2-NL10] bvb flat AQ

    • Janosikgdy
      Joined: 06.05.2007 Posts: 4,472
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2)
      Hero ($2.48)
      UTG ($13.49)
      UTG+1 ($2.77)
      CO ($5.78)
      BTN ($6.76)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: Q:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.04

      FLOP ($0.12) 2:diamond: 2:heart: J:diamond:

      SB bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12

      TURN ($0.36) 2:diamond: 2:heart: J:diamond: Q:heart:

      SB bets $0.21, Hero calls $0.21

      RIVER ($0.78) 2:diamond: 2:heart: J:diamond: Q:heart: 4:diamond:

      SB bets $0.44, Hero ?

      V:18/15/fold3bet 76/AGG FREGG 39 (F 40/ T 46/ R 26)
      CBET 68/ turn 40

      WTS20/w$sd 44 880 hands


      I am IP, and I decided to call instead of 3bet, because of his high 3bet fold.

      Flop, float call.

      Turn I hit so I decided to call.

      River draw is completed, and I have to make a decision.
      I think that most of the time his bet is value oriented

      and another question what should I do on blank river?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Janosikgdy,

      Well, this kind of Bet on river is most likely for value. Therefore the question is what kind of hand do we beat there?
      a) AQ we of course split.
      b) Any Jx wont bet the river.
      c) KQ/QJ/QT maybe be possible in his stealing range. Maybe even worse Qx hands.
      d) Different kind of flushes.

      If we add also any kind of Qx hands in his range then we still are even in favor. Which tells us that for the given odds it shouldn't be even problem if you Call for the given odds:

      Board: 2:diamond: 2:heart: J:diamond:  Q:heart:  4:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    51.35%  43.24%   8.11% { AcQd }
      UTG+1  48.65%  40.54%   8.11% { JJ, 22, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AdKd, AdTd, KdTd, Ad9d, Td9d, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }

      Even if we add more hands in the list, I guess we can still Call there for the given odds.

      Best regards.