[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH tun decision

    • EdVardenis
      EdVardenis
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.12.2009 Posts: 248
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($61.35)
      BB ($50.75)
      Hero ($109)
      CO ($52.61)
      BTN ($40.88)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: A:heart:

      Hero raises to $1.75, fold, fold, SB raises to $6, fold, Hero calls $4.25

      FLOP ($12.50) J:spade: T:spade: 5:club:

      SB bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50

      TURN ($25.50) J:spade: T:spade: 5:club: A:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $12.11, SB raises to $48.85 (AI)

      Opponent 22/21/3b10,2 400hands
  • 5 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you can´t b/f, but lets see.

      If we take top 10%, then you´re flipping his c/rai range on the turn:

      board: AsJsTs5
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      10% 55.53% 20,577 4,587
      AQs 44.47% 16,020 4,587
      , but realistically consider his hand strength:

      board: AsJsTs5
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AK, AJ, AT, Ad5d, KQ, KsK 84.77% 15,403 972
      AQs 15.23% 2,369 972
      you´re doing quite bad.

      So unless you don´t player to show you smt like Ks9x then it should be b/f especially fi you consider him c/c his pair+Ks type hands

      That leaves us to the another question: if we can´t b/c turn and we know he would balance his c/c range with c/rai I think better option would be pot control on the turn and then calling any river bet, since it is hard him to call us down smt like QJ or JxKs or KK if we both bet turn and river+ we don´t c/rai our equity if he happens to have better hand
    • EdVardenis
      EdVardenis
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.12.2009 Posts: 248
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: JsTs5cAs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 32.01% 31.72% 0.28% { AhQs }
      MP3 67.99% 67.71% 0.28% { AA, JJ-TT, KdKs, KhKs, KsKc, AJs-ATs, KQs, AsKs, Ks9s, AJo, AdKs, AhKs, AcKs }

      What do you think about the range I am putting him on?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      seems realistic although not sure he would c/rai KKc- then you can maybe also add KsJx and KsTx
    • noelga
      noelga
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 7,058
      What do u think of raising flop?

      As played I think we should check back that turn, because anything we beat gonna folds, so better try to pot control/bluff induce.
    • EdVardenis
      EdVardenis
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.12.2009 Posts: 248
      Raising flop it is an option, but I believe it would look too drawy and he might go broke easy here. In other hand by floating, we still do have the best hand here quite often w Ace high and we still do have a GS and a BDFD.

      By betting I was willing to get a call from Ksx hands, and in other perspective, to get to the showdown on the river by checking if he has a set and the river doesn't pair up. But actually, I agree now, that most probably the best option was to check and call some river cards.