The dollar movement

    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      Well the American dollar sure crashed after Bush started the war, but what do you think that will happen in the future, especially because USA is soon going to get a new president?

      I think this is a very important topic for poker players, since most poker rooms use American dollars as their main currency. Has anybody here lost a lot of their BR due to the drop of the American dollar few years back?

      Do you think it will rise again and make a nice boost to our BRs?

      I started thinking about it when I saw that when I deposited a month ago this was the exchange rate:
      1$=0.69EUR

      And now it is:
      1$=0.66EUR

      Any opinions?
  • 40 replies
    • thunderbird56
      thunderbird56
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2007 Posts: 2,182
      IMO, the dollar will continue going down, at least it won't go up in the near future. As i know, the US government is carrying on a policy which keeps the dollar at low value. Their economy and export activities are benefitting from this policy, so i don't think there would be any change in the future.

      Good luck!
      thunderbird56
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      The general expectation is a continued drop to 1.6 $ per euro, by a revision at about year-end back to 1.4-1.5 $ per euro.

      There is however a substantial disbelief in the dollar that's caused commercial stores in the NY area to accept euros as currency and not demand from European sales-hunters to exchange. Just merely to accept euros as valid currency in the Big Apple is a very big blow to American conscience and very "un-American"

      If you can put you account currency in Euro, do so.
      I think it's possible in most poker rooms and without any fees.
    • whipflip15
      whipflip15
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      Joined: 25.11.2006 Posts: 284
      I have lost 20% of my BR because the ausssie dollar is strong v USD
    • ManniXXX
      ManniXXX
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      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 707
      I would welcome any recovery of the dollar with open arms, as would any non american player i should think. But as has been said it's unlikely it will happen anytime soon.
    • sismis
      sismis
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      Joined: 27.10.2006 Posts: 352
      it could also mean that non-american fish play on higher limit :)
    • undercover82
      undercover82
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      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      Wont the conversion fee rape me if i change currency to euro atm ?
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      Better to change now than when it's 2:1.

      (I've got all my accounts in €, makes it easier for me and I don't lose money when the dollar goes down)
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Originally posted by undercover82
      Wont the conversion fee rape me if i change currency to euro atm ?
      Only if the dollar suddenly rises, not if the dollar continues it's decline.
      C'mon, you reached I don't even know what limit and you don't even know basic economics ? ^^
    • undercover82
      undercover82
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      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      I just wanna be sure that it is a good thing to change to euro.
      More opinions plz ~_~
    • whitefang43
      whitefang43
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      Joined: 15.12.2007 Posts: 184
      well the $ has dropped 20% since i started playing online poker and is now at it's lowest in the last 30 years, but it's not gonna last long enough to really matter imo...unless you have a very big BR

      btw i know that scandic doesn't let you change currency

      no wonder american economy sucks, since bush took office they have borrowed 900.000.000.000.000.00$ from china!!!!!!
    • ccookie
      ccookie
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      Joined: 01.12.2007 Posts: 68
      A professional opinion here (well, if a degree in economics counts):

      First, I believe USD goes further down long-term for the reason whitefang43 mentioned - US borrowed so much, and continue to do so, and there's no repayment planned. Even with a new government, it's hard to repay (politically) when economy's in recession. Bad debts->no trust->currency down.

      Second, unless you are qualified to speculate on Forex market, it's generally a good idea to avoid guessing currency movements (even with advice). Just keep bankroll in your country's currency (or a related one). European - keep in Euro. American - keep in dollars. This way, you avoid extra volatility with what your bankroll can really buy you.

      If you try to choose the "best" currency, you are essentially playing Forex using your poker bankroll. Do you believe an advice from a poker forum really gives you better than 60% to guess currencies right? If it's 60%, guessing currency is equivalent to betting maybe 10% of your bankroll when you are 60% favorite (hint: +EV but bad bankroll management).
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Originally posted by ccookie
      A professional opinion here (well, if a degree in economics counts):

      First, I believe USD goes further down long-term for the reason whitefang43 mentioned - US borrowed so much, and continue to do so, and there's no repayment planned. Even with a new government, it's hard to repay (politically) when economy's in recession. Bad debts->no trust->currency down.

      Second, unless you are qualified to speculate on Forex market, it's generally a good idea to avoid guessing currency movements (even with advice). Just keep bankroll in your country's currency (or a related one). European - keep in Euro. American - keep in dollars. This way, you avoid extra volatility with what your bankroll can really buy you.

      If you try to choose the "best" currency, you are essentially playing Forex using your poker bankroll. Do you believe an advice from a poker forum really gives you better than 60% to guess currencies right? If it's 60%, guessing currency is equivalent to betting maybe 10% of your bankroll when you are 60% favorite (hint: +EV but bad bankroll management).
      #2, but of course i'm just an amateur with economics (only did it in 1st year university)
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Originally posted by undercover82
      I just wanna be sure that it is a good thing to change to euro.
      More opinions plz ~_~
      If your bankroll is diminishing by the day in terms of buying power in $, and rising by the day in €, well, you can probably guess yourself ;)

      I changed to € a couple of months ago, and didn't regret it one bit since then.
    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
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      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      And how do you play if you change your currency? Do you still play in $ but it banks in EUR? I mean it would be kind off weird to see the direct change from $ to EUR at the tables?

      And is it possible to change the currency at Poker Stars? I can't find that option.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      I just noticed:

      1,00 $ = 0,65 €


      nice, another 107$ added to my br today :D
    • phpps
      phpps
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      Joined: 30.01.2008 Posts: 109
      Americans borrowing money from china is nothing new and certainly not new to the Bush government. The americans have been racking up debt all over the world for decades, but yes especially in china.

      Cant wait till china reevaluates the yen, then this idea of a recession in the states will seem like heaven compared to the state they will be in when they realize they cant afford to produce their own textiles amongst many other products that they rely on china's cheap labor for.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      You just take the equivalent in euro to the tables at the current exchange rate, but the numbers at the tables are still in $. In party, you get to see what each $ pot is worth in € if you hover it.
    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      Can I change to EUR at Poker Stars?
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Ok, it seems to go really fast now. 1 € passed the 1.55 $ shortly ...