[NL2-NL10] NL20 SB vs BB on drawy board

    • VipKen
      VipKen
      Silver
      Joined: 07.03.2009 Posts: 280
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($6.80)
      BB ($31.87) VPIP=40/PFR=16 (sample 227 hands)
      UTG ($20)
      UTG+1 ($31.42)
      CO ($33.01)
      BTN ($50.13)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: 5:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, BB calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.20) T:heart: Q:heart: K:diamond:

      Hero bets $0.80, BB calls $0.80

      TURN ($2.80) T:heart: Q:heart: K:diamond: Q:club:

      Hero checks, BB checks

      RIVER ($2.80) T:heart: Q:heart: K:diamond: Q:club: 4:spade:

      Hero checks, BB bets $2.10, Hero ???

      All fold towards me in SB. Villain has a 64% Fold2Steal, which is good enough for me to steal with J5s. Villain calls and we get a drawy board, not improving my hand.

      Villains Fold2Cbet is 56%. Is this enough to place a cbet here with only an OESD? At that moment I thought it was, so I cbet and villain calls. Turn doesn't improve my hand, but villain checks behind. River brings a blank, so I check again, but villain fires a 3/4 potbet. Is he bluffing here to pick up the pot?

      Should/could I have played this hand another way?
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Heyhello,

      Just fold preflop. Your hand is crap, your position is crap and your opponent doesn't make life easier for you mostly

      with 227 hands, you definitly dont have enough subsample of determining his Fold2steal @BB so I would say it is lower to the mid50s%

      As played do you think he bet worse hands than Jack hi? if so which hands precisely?

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • VipKen
      VipKen
      Silver
      Joined: 07.03.2009 Posts: 280
      It's shorthand, so I have to take every chance to steal the blinds. 2 suited cards are well enough. But this time he calls my steal, and also calls my cbet. So yeah, I give up my hand after him calling my cbet, although I have seen the strangest blufs in this kind of situations.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by VipKen
      It's shorthand, so I have to take every chance to steal the blinds. 2 suited cards are well enough.
      That's definitly not a reason to steal against a 40/x guy who is not going to be very fond of folding hence your holding is crucial in order to be playing this at least 0EV OOP

      Are you going to double or triple barrel when the board is Jxx, Turn blank, River a T,9,8 ?


      But this time he calls my steal, and also calls my cbet. So yeah, I give up my hand after him calling my cbet, although I have seen the strangest blufs in this kind of situations.
      Don't trick yourself into selective memory ;)